This had been in the post. Rangers created a higher xG than they conceded in only two of four Scottish Premiership wins under Danny Rohl before Sunday’s 0-0 draw against Falkirk. Across the course of the season, their xG difference (chances created minus chances conceded) is 0.25 heading into December. That's mid-table numbers.
In short, the Ibrox side have conceded chances at the same basic rate they’d created. Their performances left no room for error, and in football, such sums will always catch up with you.
Perhaps, on the balance of chances that were created, Rangers deserved to win this game in the cold light of day. However, three points against Livingston relied on a healthy dose of luck, as did a recent 1-0 win at Hibs. If you don’t leave margin for error, error will eventually catch you. As the Rangers Review reasoned on our latest Saturday Show, this type of result has been coming.
The head coach is not blameless. It was perplexing to see Gassama play once more on the right from the bench when he is so much more effective on the left and although Bajrami was the brightest of a refreshed forward line, the Albanian’s impact was somewhat tamed without a left-footed full-back to overlap him and open up the pitch. A lack of half-time subs was also surprising.
However, on this latest apathetic day at Ibrox, it was Rangers’ creativity issues that felt most pressing and most apparent.
Rohl was quietly critical of his side post-match, admitting he wouldn’t run out of patience, but some individuals would run out of chances. We can’t be sure who he was talking about, although two expensive summer arrivals can’t have been far away in his thoughts.
Oliver Antman (567) and Thelo Aasgaard (702) have seen more domestic minutes than Bajrami (207), Lyall Cameron (216) or Findlay Curtis (90). However, for nearly £10m in transfer fees, they’ve returned just two assists and one goal in the league.
Goalscoring is a preeminent issue for Rohl and Rangers, too. Youssef Chermiti, Danilo and Bojan Miovski have amassed only four league goals and there is no obvious sign of that trend starting to turn anytime soon. How badly are Cyriel Dessers, Hamza Igamane and Vaclav Cerny missed?
If we take a step back and look at chance creation, however, while the club have downgraded in the No.9 position, is it any wonder that goals aren’t flowing?
Rangers’ open-play xG of 0.85 is the sixth highest in the league, behind yesterday’s opposition, newly promoted Falkirk. It is accurate to suggest that over the course of the season, Falkirk have created, marginally, a higher quantity of chances than Rangers. All stats referenced in this piece are on a per-90 basis.
The chart below depicts creativity on an individual level using open-play xG assisted. All this chart shows is the average quality of chances created on an individual basis, excluding corners or free-kicks. It takes the above image down to the ground.
We’ve extended the benchmark from >600 minutes to >300 minutes, because Antman just misses the higher cut-off. Note, Miovski's average comes with a caveat, because the former created an open goal chance for Mohamed Diomande last week (a valid entry, but one that skews his per 90 average). The same could be said for Derek Cornelius, who put one on a plate for Miovski away at Falkirk.
Look at some of the names near the bottom of the list. Diomande and Connor Barron, James Tavernier, Gassama, Jayden Meghoma and Aasgaard. All are creating very, very few chances.
Even when extending the above chart to >300 minutes, allowing for a little more variation, only four players have an xG assisted number of 0.10 or higher.
Last season, in a poor Rangers team, eight players created at an average of 0.10xG assisted or higher.
For reference, in the 2022/23 season, the most creative player in the team was Malik Tillman, with an xG assisted average of 0.25, while Ryan Kent and Fashion Sakala were narrowly behind on 0.23. In 2023/24, Todd Cantwell recorded a 0.23 xG assisted average with six players boasting totals of 0.16 or above. Last season, Danilo’s xG assisted average of 0.29 was complemented by Vaclav Cerny’s 0.27 and Ianis Hagi’s 0.21 and five others above the 0.10 benchmark.
This season, Antman’s 0.19 xG assisted is followed by Miovski (0.17), Raskin (0.11), Cornelius (0.10) and Danilo (0.09).
Of course, it is only midway through the campaign, but cutting the benchmark to >300 minutes levels the playing field. You could view Antman’s number, for example, as evidence that with more gametime, he will create more for this team. Or you could view the small sample size as inconclusive evidence. That fits a trend of Rangers’ open-play xG almost halving compared to recent seasons.
This was the type of game that those who signed Aasgaard and Antman in the summer hoped they’d run; instead, both were substituted as Rohl sought some form of solution. Aasgaard keeps the ball instead of breaking lines and plays at too slow a pace, while Antman runs down blind alleys, in his defence rarely found when space ahead of him is on show.
Aasgaard, clearly a very technically able player who is in a highly competitive Norway squad, is perhaps more of a shooter than a creator. He has the second-highest xG tally in the squad per 90 at 0.24.
Antman, meanwhile, amassed 16 assists in the Eredivisie last season. However, aside from one assist away at Livingston and since that bold debut against Viktoria Plzen, we’ve scarcely seen Antman hit the byline. Indeed, his key pass map shows the absence of cutbacks that Russell Martin, a big player in his signing, believed he’d bring to Scotland. Complimenting Gassama’s goal-bound dribbling from the left with genuine width on the right side.
Furthermore, James Tavernier’s creative numbers have fallen off a cliff. He is playing deeper and another year of football is in his legs, while more end-to-end games don’t suit his ability to join the attacks. Since 2021/22, Tavernier’s xG assisted per 90 in open play reads 0.19, 0.13, 0.16, 0.11 and this season 0.04. Gassama's 0.05xg assisted isn't much better.
Read more:
- Danny Rohl admits frustration with players, 'clear picture' of January requirements
- The under-the-hood proof that Danny Rohl's Rangers can't let luck run out
Once again, this side has no real base built in the summer to fall back on and changing style mid-campaign is always perilous. Once again, it is obvious that Rangers have a more talented squad than they’ve shown, but even more obvious that they needed to sign three or four genuine leaders to build the next iteration of this squad around to bring that level out of others.
On the week that Kevin Thelwell was fired as sporting director, is it a simple case of this squad being built far too narrowly for a failed project? Squad building is a hard business and with each passing game, this summer’s is made to look worse.
Of course, if Rangers were playing better as a team, then creative players would have more time in the final third, better runs to find and a more familiar structure around them to form relationships.
In equal measure, if individuals were able to raise the level of the team, all of the above would start to fall into place.
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