The assertion from Danny Rohl – which has been made on several occasions over several weeks – that the Premiership title race will go down to the final 90 minutes of the season looks sound. What the German cannot say for certain, though, is that Rangers will be in the running heading into matchday 38.
With nine fixtures left, there are four options on the table at Ibrox in league terms. The dream, of course, is for the silverware to be housed in the Trophy Room and for Champions League football to be secured.
At the other end of the scale, finishing behind Hearts, Celtic and Motherwell, in whatever order, is the nightmare scenario in football and financial terms. A collapse would raise questions over Rohl, reaffirm beliefs over some of his players and consign Rangers to Conference League qualifiers.
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The press conference post-mortem on Sunday focused on what had gone wrong against Celtic. Just one question referred to the state of play at the top of the table. On a day when Rangers needed to cut the deficit to Hearts, it was extended once again.
“Yeah, of course you need wins,” Rohl said. “Every team needs wins. Today we played a draw.” The remainder of his answer returned to the theme of his side failing to last the distance on derby day and only collecting a point.
Three of the last four fixtures have ended with that particular result. The momentum that was built during January – which started with an Old Firm victory at Parkhead – has been halted over the last month. The form is not that of challengers, never mind champions.
When two points were squandered late on at Fir Park, the glass half full perspective was that there were still plenty of games, and therefore plenty of time and points, left in the title race. That same stance was put forward when Rangers had to salvage a draw with Livingston last weekend. On Sunday, those who believe Rohl’s side can still win the league made the same statement.
It is true, of course. The issue, though, is that the matches are starting to run out. As the games column ticks down, the points gap is going in the opposite direction.
The deficit to Hearts is not insurmountable. There will be twists and turns, moments of hope and despair, in the weeks ahead. Of the 27 points that are available to play for, how many are Rangers likely to need? Anything other than the full quota will surely leave them short.
The wiggle room has been used up, the margin for error is now non-existent. Do Rangers have nine successive Premiership wins in them? In the bigger picture, can they win 12 on the spin to end the campaign with two medals to their credit?
If the levels reached during the first half against Celtic can be found time and time again, then such a run is possible. Yet the derby encapsulated the good, the bad and the ugly of Rangers this term and showed why such a target looks like mission impossible for Rohl. This is a side that is consistently inconsistent from half to half, never mind week to week or month to month.
The eight successive wins between December 27 and January 25 represents the longest streak of the season for Rangers. It also includes the back-to-back wins at home to Annan Athletic and Ludogorets.
Only three of the last eight have been won. The defeat to Porto was inconsequential and the win over Hearts was the high point. Kilmarnock and Queen’s Park were dispatched at Ibrox but those aforementioned draws with Motherwell, Livingston and Celtic came after an insipid showing at Easter Road.
The quartet of stalemates are amongst a dozen that Rangers have collected over the season. A side that have lost two domestic league matches – at home and away to Hearts – are not favourites for the title as a result of being unable to turn the tight matches in their favour. When Hearts and Celtic find ways to win, Rangers find ways to not win.
Last term, Celtic dropped points in nine matches, drawing five times and losing four. The season before that, they drew six and lost three. The champions this term will end with the lowest winning tally, outside of the Covid campaign that was decided on points per game, since the total of 87 that Celtic collected – with six draws and five defeats – seven years ago.
The winners will be worthy. This has not been a classic campaign in terms of the quality, but it has been unmatched in terms of the drama. Could a season that saw Rangers hire and fire their worst-ever manager somehow end with them crowned as champions? Somehow, it conceivably could.
Hearts can reach a maximum of 90 from 38 matches. Rangers can only reach 84, while Celtic can get to 85 if they win their game in hand against Aberdeen on Wednesday evening. Motherwell can get to 80 and are too far back to be considered as contenders with three teams ahead of them.
The Steelmen could have a say in the destination of the league flag, however. And their remarkable efforts this term mean that neither side of the Old Firm can throw in the towel once they are knocked out of title contention. You could quite easily set your sights on first and end up fourth if you are not careful.
That is the position that Rangers could occupy by the time they return to Premiership action at St Mirren a week on Sunday. Celtic will go above them if they beat Aberdeen this week, while Motherwell play twice – away to Dundee and then at Parkhead – before Rangers next kick a ball in the league.
Rohl is unlikely to pay too much attention to what transpires from those matches. First and foremost, he needs to find a way to recover from the agonising end to the Old Firm and ensure that Martin O’Neill’s side are beaten in the Scottish Cup this weekend. In the space of a week, the ambition of a league and cup double could turn into Rangers staring at an empty-handed season.
The psychological impact of the second derby is huge on both sides of the city. Rangers need to banish the memories of Sunday’s second half and give the support something to believe in once again. Then they need four wins from four before the split to ensure they are no further than six behind with five to play.
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Rohl insisted after the win over Hearts that the mentality of his side should not be questioned before the end of the term. It will now be severely tested in the trips to Tynecastle and Parkhead in particular, but also in every match that they play in the coming weeks.
Rangers are good enough to win each of those fixtures in their own right. Are they, though, good enough to win week after week after week? Are they good enough to be champions?
Ultimately, failure would be on Rohl’s watch but it should not be on his conscience given the situation that he inherited and the task that he took on. In the race that is a marathon and not a sprint, he has come from well off the pace to compete with the pack. Now he must get the blue nose in front in the dash for the winning line.
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