Let’s cut straight to the point: Rangers deserved to win against Livingston on Sunday. Analyse the performance rather than the result and that’s the natural conclusion to draw.
Stripping back emotion is tricky during a title race and games are fast running out for anyone hoping to finish top of the pile in May.
However, if blame belonged anywhere come 5pm after a 2-2 draw in West Lothian, it lay with John Souttar rather than Danny Rohl. Both of Livingston’s set‑piece goals originated from Souttar’s errors: first by misjudging an early long ball, then by conceding a foul after a slack pass early in the second half. He was also suspect for Motherwell’s equaliser in a recent 1-1 draw and Claudio Braga’s strike at Ibrox last weekend.
Zoom out and this was a quintessential freak game. Jerome Prior was excellent in goal for the hosts (according to StatsBomb, he saved 1.83 goals above average). Livingston scored with two of their five shots despite generating just 0.23 xG. And had the home side rightly been reduced to nine men late on - after the referee made a glaring error in failing to punish Cammy Kerr’s last‑man tackle on Mikey Moore - Rangers would likely have had time and momentum to find a winner. It was the perfect storm.
Underlying xG data, which evaluates the quality and likelihood of scoring based on chances created, suggests Rohl’s side would win that match 93 times out of 100 based on the quality of their opportunities. Much like the same scoreline at Dundee United before Christmas, luck was simply not on Rangers’ side.
Of course, this was no perfect away performance. Defending for both goals was lethargic, and individuals such as Souttar and Djeidi Gassama below par. Rohl still lacks a dictating, rhythmic midfield presence to take ownership of matches. Being hyper‑critical, Nedim Bajrami’s impact arguably justified the Albanian entering earlier in place of Thelo Aasgaard. And should the 4‑2‑2‑2 have returned from the start?
The issue was that the smallest mistakes were punished with ruthless precision by Marvin Bartley’s side. Rangers have effectively no margin for error if they want to win this title. That margin is narrowing every week.
Beat Celtic on Sunday and they could effectively knock their city rivals out of the title race, having already beaten them on their own patch last month. And little more than a week ago, Rohl’s side comfortably overpowered league leaders Hearts. Starting from a standing position, you’d have every reason to predict a Rangers title win under Rohl had he been appointed last summer.
The issue is simple: Rangers effectively began their title push in October when Derek McInnes’ side were already 13 points ahead. That’s not to discredit Hearts but to highlight the circumstances Rohl inherited. Starting with one league win in eight leaves no room for unlucky afternoons or off‑nights.
Rangers have picked up 47 points since Rohl arrived. In the same time period, Hearts have picked up 40 and Celtic 37. Motherwell? A remarkable 42.
Of course, the season does not start in autumn and not everything has been positive in recent weeks. Motherwell - now only six points behind Rangers with a game in hand - completely outplayed Rohl's team a little over a fortnight ago. And, this is important to stress, if xG suggested Rangers were unlucky against Livingston, they have twice been fortunate not to leave Easter Road with a defeat this season usinf the same logic. Swings and roundabouts.
But the point stands: no title‑winning team is perfect. Arsenal’s win over Tottenham came just days after dropping points to bottom‑placed Wolves, as Rohl noted in his pre‑match press conference. You make room for those anomalies with long‑term consistency - but that's something Rangers simply don’t have because of their early‑season collapse.
Away form remains a genuine concern. Recent draws at Fir Park, Easter Road and the Set Fare Arena amount to three points from a possible nine. Under Rohl, Rangers have dropped points only once at home in the league, compared to five times on the road. That is a pattern.
While this is hardly an issue unique to Rangers - very few teams are stronger away from home - there are legitimate fears that if they fall short, they will curse an age‑old weakness: an inability to impose themselves away from Ibrox. The best teams bend the pace and patterns of a match to their will. Rangers failed to do that in their recent slip‑ups at Hearts, Motherwell and Hibs.
We saw them do just that in the 4-2 win over McInnes' men eight days ago; playing on the front foot, committing men forwards and loading the box. Ryan Naderi's fitness issues have stopped Rohl from partnering him with Youssef Chermiti away at Motherwell and Livingston. When ready, surely reversion to that shape will follow?
Three of the five matches before the split are at Ibrox, and the only away trip before facing Falkirk on April 11 is to struggling St Mirren. But before mid-May, Rohl must take his team to Tynecastle and Celtic Park.
Matches aren’t played on paper, but Celtic face four consecutive away fixtures - Ibrox twice, Stuttgart and Pittodrie - before hosting Motherwell and visiting Tannadice pre-split. Hearts, too, must play Jens Askou Berthel’s Motherwell twice more. And although Motherwell may be a couple of wins short of entering the title picture, although count them out at your peril, they may yet shape it.
With 10 rounds remaining, Rangers can afford maybe one slip‑up, if that. Context aside, with single‑game weeks and a big squad to rotate, time is running out. Crucially, with Hearts now four points clear, the title is in their hands.
Read next:
- How Rohl's bold new system overwhelmed Hearts: Box loading, 4-4-2, flying full-backs
- Rangers release statement after 'unacceptable' abuse towards Gassama and Fernandez
Sunday was the kind of afternoon every title contender faces when the cards don’t fall their way. It's the type of match you can brush off in a 38-game season. But Rohl and Rangers know they don’t have the bandwidth for many more. Time has not been, and is not, on their side.
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