It is not a number that makes for good reading. Monday’s defeat at Hearts means that, since Danny Rohl arrived at Rangers, he has won only six of 15 games against top-six opponents.
Having failed to beat Martin O’Neill across three attempts, won only once against Jens Berthel Askou, lost twice to Derek McInnes, and dropped points against David Gray and John McGlynn, the pressure to win at Parkhead on Sunday, despite the league title now being out of reach, is high.
The gap between potential Champions League and Conference League football is a stark reward for finishing second rather than third, and Rohl also risks entering next season with this season’s failures casting a shadow.
The next period will test the sporting structure Rangers have moved to after abandoning their sporting director model. Stig Inge Bjørnebye is expected to remain at the club beyond his consultant period and is tasked with building a club game model. Still, Rohl’s influence in moulding this squad in January and beyond, with daily talks between key transfer decision-makers at the mid-season camp in Spain, raises familiar fears.
Rangers cannot fall into another cycle of sacking a manager mid-season and pressing reset. Their failure to adhere to a consistent idea, or form a clear identity, has been a constant thorn in recent seasons and goes some way to explaining how their title bid has fallen apart in recent weeks. After a season in which they've pivoted from Russell Martin to Rohl, lessons in travelling in one footballing and squad-building direction must be heeded.
As the Rangers Review argued after the defeat to Hearts, this game was the latest in a long line of performances in which strong halves have contrasted sharply with the other 45 minutes.
A dominant 2-0 lead was established against Celtic before O’Neill’s side scored twice in the second half, a game so contrasting that the cliché of “a game of two halves” felt appropriate.
The five goals scored after the break at Falkirk before the split were impressive, but what of the hosts establishing a two-goal lead before that?
And while Rohl’s team perhaps deserved to add a third goal against Motherwell, their performance before the break at Ibrox a fortnight ago left them vulnerable to conceding a late winner on the break.
That is before we consider Monday’s game at Tynecastle, or the New Year Old Firm. Rangers controlled the occasion before half-time in a way we have rarely seen this season, probing the hosts with possession and attacking in waves. The game was played on their terms.
Until it wasn’t.
Derek McInnes’ shift to a more obvious midfield three at the break kept Hearts’ man-for-man press consistent and ensured the visitors began to get caught on the ball. Gradually, Rangers retreated deeper off the ball, despite Rohl arguing this was not his instruction. Once momentum shifted, it did not feel as though his side believed they could wrestle it back. There was a horrible inevitability to it all.
Early in Rohl’s tenure, his tactical flexibility and ability to adapt to opponents felt like a strength. Recently, though, it has appeared more like a hindrance. Rangers struggle to adapt in-game without a half-time for their head coach to reset and provide solutions. Unable to consistently play “their” football, the 4-2-2-2, for 90 minutes, or without key injured personnel, they have switched formations repeatedly.
Ultimately, this comes back to a simple fact: Rangers still lack identity.
If any game summed this up best, it was the Scottish Cup exit to Celtic. O’Neill’s side were missing Callum McGregor and Kieran Tierney and ended the game without attempting a shot, yet Rangers still could not find a way to win. They did not lose, but their inability to punish Celtic or capitalise on opportunity speaks volumes. As Rohl admitted post-match at Tynecastle, he has seen improvement, but it has not been enough to win the title.
Despite the position Rohl inherited, the money spent at Ibrox compared to Hearts, and the club-wide unity compared to Celtic, this season represented a significant opportunity. Failing to beat a depleted Celtic in either cup competition or build consistency in the league leaves the German open to criticism.
Those who came before remain the primary architects of this season. Patrick Stewart made numerous mistakes, and Kevin Thelwell was equally culpable. Russell Martin managed just one league win in seven before departing. This is where the real damage was done.
Since the January window, Rohl has tried to make his team more proactive, capable of setting the parameters of a game rather than reacting to the opposition, and he was strongly backed to do so.
The 4-2-2-2 has looked powerful and effective at its best, and loose and disorganised at its worst. The gap between the ceiling and the floor is vast. It has also relied heavily on Tuur Rommens and Ryan Naderi, both of whom have proven susceptible to injury. The Andreas Skov Olsen experiment has failed badly.
We saw a diluted version against Motherwell, and it was picked apart. That exposed Rangers’ limitations in possession, they still cannot play through a press or progress cleanly through the thirds, and it was no surprise to see Rohl revert to a more reactive, narrow 4-3-3 at Tynecastle. Privately, he may reflect on a mistake in his selection that day at Ibrox.
However, the constant shifting between styles and approaches is not conducive to success. It leaves the team without a bedrock, a familiar off-ball structure or on-ball relationships, to tip fine margins in their favour.
While it is not entirely black-and-white, we have seen Rohl switch from an asymmetrical back three to a 4-2-3-1, 4-2-2-2, and 4-3-3. Had his side scored instead of Motherwell in injury time last week, this column might focus on his adaptability. Instead, results have highlighted the lack of a core identity to fall back on.
It is also clear that a new spine is required. For all the money spent, Rangers still lack five or six players you can depend on every week, a goalkeeper, a No. 6, and a reliable right winger (remember Vaclav Cerny?). Consistent individual output remains elusive.
This is why it is so important for the German to show that he can correct this trajectory this weekend. No Old Firm is a dead rubber. Rangers could dent Celtic’s title hopes, and their access to Champions League money, while boosting their own. Three points at Parkhead would lift morale significantly.
What you should read next:
- Joshua Barrie: The reason Rangers have dropped out of the title race and what's killed their chances
- Why Danny Rohl cannot defend the indefensible in Rangers mentality debate
As has been noted in recent post-season debriefs, Rangers will not win a league title until they have a clear, concise idea of who they are, the structure and relationships to create chances, the organisation and resolve to prevent them, and a squad built with that identity in mind. They need a system that allows them to manage games in real time, not just at half-time.
Their record in big games suggests their direct opponents have a stronger identity and a greater ability to win individual battles.
We should not forget how low the club was when Rohl arrived. Much of his job has been recovery. Yet in key moments, at decisive junctures, there remain more questions than answers.
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