The cost of yet another season of failure – in both football and financial terms – is significant for Rangers. From a position of strength and potential prosperity just a few weeks ago, their European fate and fortune is no longer in their hands.
There was a scenario where Rangers could have found themselves heading straight into the Champions League, with all the glitz, glamour and money that comes with it. With third place in the Premiership confirmed, the nightmare scenario of Conference League football is now looming large on the horizon.
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Here, the Rangers Review outlines what could unfold and the ramifications at Ibrox. The European equation is just one headache for Andrew Cavenagh and his team to worry about right now.
What is the state of play for the Premiership?
This term will be the last for the foreseeable future where Scotland has two potential routes into the Champions League. Our top flight now sits 18th in the UEFA rankings, below leagues such as Greece, Cyprus and Austria and Scotland’s standing on the continent is a real concern for the clubs. Scotland has added just five points – fewer than Slovenia, Azerbaijan and Ukraine – to the tally this term and it will take a remarkable effort to rebuild the co-efficient in the coming years.
Celtic will go into the Champions League play-off round and are guaranteed eight matches in the Europa League if they fall at that stage after their last-day victory over Hearts. Derek McInnes, meanwhile, will lead his side into QR2 in the Champions League and will have a Europa League QR3 tie and a Conference League play-off as potential parachutes.
Scotland also has two more Conference League places to be allocated, in the most likely scenario, to the clubs that finish fourth and fifth in the Premiership. Defeat at that stage ends the European campaign. In all competitions, there are three qualifying rounds and a play-off before the league phase that has been in operation for two seasons now.
What are the permutations for Rangers?
Rangers could have benefited from their club ranking thanks to their efforts over the five-year counting period but that only came into play if they had won the league. Their run to Seville will soon drop off their record.
A third-place finish will see them enter the Europa League third qualifying round. That comes with a drop into the Conference League play-off in the event of defeat. Lose that tie and you are out of Europe before the big hitters in the game have even thought about a continental campaign.
All of that is on the proviso that Celtic win the Scottish Cup, though. Rangers fans may have thought their interest in the domestic game was over with the win over Falkirk last Saturday but events at Hampden will have a huge bearing on their club next season.
If Neil Lennon can overcome his former side and lift the cup, Dunfermline will take the Europa League place that currently has Rangers’ name beside it. That comes with the second chances as outlined above. In that case, Rangers and Motherwell, the fourth-place finishers this term, will take the Conference League berths and Hibernian would miss out altogether. It would also cost Rangers more than £4million in UEFA prize money.
Do the dates of their qualifiers change as a result?
The best-case scenario is for Rangers to be in the third qualifying round for the Europa League. That would see Rohl’s side return to competitive action domestically before they had to take to the continent. The new Premiership campaign will get off and running on the weekend of August 1/2 and the first leg of the qualifiers is set for August 6, with the return matches a week later.
If Dunfermline are victorious at Hampden, that changes the picture for Rangers. They would discover their first opponents of the campaign in the draw for the Conference League QR2 on June 17 and be back in action on July 23 for the first leg. The Europa draw is on July 20 and Rangers would be seeded.
In both scenarios, the final matches are played on the same August 20/27 dates and there will be a knock-on in Premiership terms as Rangers gear up for another season dominated by the Thursday/Sunday routine. If it is the Conference League, there are only six matches at home and six away rather than the total of 16 fixtures in the other two competitions.
Plans for a pre-season camp are still being finalised. Rohl is set to take his squad to Europe for a period of training that will shape the season. Ideally, the German would have a handful of new recruits in by that mid-July date and the friendly schedule that will be pieced together once all dates are known.
Are the financial implications considerable?
The riches of the Champions League have eluded Rangers for so long and it could be some time before they are able to cash one of the big UEFA cheques once again. That dream scenario is not one that Rangers budget for, and understandably so given how difficult it is to get there. Finishing behind Celtic and Hearts has cost them a crack at the main competition and a potential £35million bounty.
There is a difference between the Europa League income that has been the norm - both predicted and banked - of late and what could be gained from a season in the Conference League but it is understood that it will not make a tangible impact on what will be spent in the transfer market this summer.
Chairman Cavenagh sanctioned a near £40million spend to rebuild the squad first time around and Rohl will now be backed to make his mark on the group in an attempt to deliver silverware and improve on a dreadful Europa campaign that saw Rangers finish with four points from eight matches.
"I would say that our European qualification has little impact on what we are trying to do this summer," Cavenagh said when asked about the impact on Rohl's budget. "We're trying to build a squad to win the league. Our focus is on winning the league first and foremost. We do want to play at the highest possible level in Europe, for the prestige, the competition and selfishly the revenue as well, but our squad rebuild this summer won't be dictated in August."
At around £400,000 for a win and £130,000 for a draw, it is clear how much that poor performance cost Rangers this season. That came on top of a £4million fee for participating in the league phase. By comparison, a win in the Champions League is worth £2million, while a draw is rewarded with a £600,000 payment. In the Conference League, the figures are around £350,000 and £130,000 respectively.
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