THE first Old Firm derby of the season is always a hotly-contested and significant affair.

Since arriving in Scotland, it’s a fixture Steven Gerrard has only won once. In 2018 his side suffered a 1-0 defeat at Celtic Park and the following season they were beaten 2-0 at Ibrox. In the Invincible league campaign of 20/21 however, Rangers came out on top with a comfortable 2-0 victory.

Overall, the 41-year-old has a favourable record in these ties. Having lost four matches, drawn one and coming out on top seven times.

Celtic are a better outfit than the team that was beaten in four Old Firm matches last season. But how will Rangers try to expose and exploit vulnerabilities in their tactical system?

The Rangers Review brings you an extended tactical match preview, detailing some areas Gerrard may seek to exploit in the visiting defence.

An improved opposition

Celtic are rejuvenated under Ange Postecogolou, although they’ve looked vulnerable in defence against the best team they’ve played so far this season over two legs, AZ Alkmaar.

Equally, dynamic and exciting offensive performances have been forthcoming and they have recorded some extremely high xG numbers. According to StatsBomb, their xG total over three league matches this term stands at 10.92.

Postecogolou's side also has the lowest passes per defensive action per 90 in the league standing at 4.48, demonstrating their high-energy approach with and without the ball.

Further to this point, StatsBomb suggest that Celtic are the most aggressive side in the division - defined as the proportion of opponent pass recipients that are tackled, pressurised or fouled within two seconds.

As seen below, Rangers are nearer the bottom of this table. Their average of 0.18 sits 0.04 below last season’s total while Celtic’s 0.25 is 0.02 higher than their own 20/21 number.

This is a minor detail but it does back up the point that Rangers have looked a yard off the intensity and aggression they displayed without the ball last season.

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Postecoglou is evidently a forward-thinking coach. Protecting a two-goal lead in the Netherlands on Thursday evening, his team began the game with two attacking midfielders playing as No.8’s in midfield in Tom Rogic and David Turnbull. An offensive mindset ultimately led to them scoring the tie-sealing goal within three minutes, they were fortunate to only concede twice on the night, however.

He deploys inverted full-backs to supplement build-up, allow the No.8s to push high, protect against counter-attacks and give wingers the opportunity to isolate opponents one-on-one. 

Like any system, there are weaknesses. Everything in a set-up is a trade-off. A slightly more advanced full-back may contribute more offensively, while also leaving more room behind him that needs covered.

In Rangers’ case, leaving attackers high can see the side hurt by switches of play and wide overloads on occasion, but allows them to transition quickly and defend as they want to attack. 

As we wrote last week, a lack of pressure from the forward line against Ross County was a theme that led to the creation of some high-value chances for the hosts in the Highlands. Such is the fine-tuned nature of the way Rangers defend, if one part doesn’t do its job the whole thread can unwind.

READ MORE: Analysis: How were Ross County able to create so many chances against Rangers?

Around the world, coaches form systems with a balance in mind. Liverpool was the most aggressive team in world football from 2018-2020. To complement the attacking strengths of the side and grant full-backs the ability to form a front five, the midfield was designed not to bring creativity first but protection in Fabinho, Gini Wijnaldum and Jordan Henderson.

As the great Bill Shankley once said: "Football is like a piano, you need 8 men to carry it and 3 to play the damn thing." Whether Postecoglou's set-up offers that balance throughout a campaign remains to be seen.

Celtic’s defensive weaknesses

What has been on show in both ties with AZ is a blend of impressive attacking football and some abrasive, risk-heavy defending.

The first image we see displays the sort of space that Celtic leave when attacking. Anthony Ralston is playing infield as an inverted full-back, but when he is bypassed there are huge gaps on either side of the defence which allow progression towards the goal.

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A downside of playing inverted full-backs is that if space in the conventional full-back area is not covered, it can be easily exploited. 

The Celtic midfield is outnumbered here which means Ralston must invert to protect space in front of the defence, to stop de Wit running unopposed. In doing so, he has to neglect the man behind him until the pass is played and allowing the attacker momentum to cut inside and test Joe Hart.

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This isn't necessarily a mistake on the part of Ralston - it just showcases the vulnerabilities of playing this system without more cover.

For example, if Ianis Hagi and Joe Aribo were to play as No.8s in Europe instead of Glen Kamara and Ryan Jack, the space behind James Tavernier and Borna Barisic would be exposed.

In this instance, if the inverted full-backs have to cover central space to support Callum McGregor as the single pivot, ideally more support would be offered by either of the No.8s.

The lead-up to the second goal Celtic conceded against Jablonec in an earlier qualifying round again showed how teams can expose the spaces vacated by inverted full-backs, if the midfield does not drop back to support the defensive phase.

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A further area in which Rangers may try to hurt their opponents is during their progression of the ball.

One of the roles of the inverted full-back is to help move the ball through the pitch by coming infield, in turn allowing the No.8's to push higher and wingers to stay wide. The below example shows the downside of this method, however.

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As Ralston receives the ball, his body shape is closed. Meaning he can't see his man and needs to try and take a touch around to open up his field of vision. A midfielder with more experience in this type of game scenario may just drop the ball back or release possession first time.

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Look how many players are ahead of the ball in this scenario. It's a gamble that pays off if Ralston bypasses his man. If not the team can be outnumbered in transition. If balls are won in these areas - Rangers should be able to capitalise with their pace on the counter-attack.

A final example shows both the good and bad of this tactical setup. Here you can see Carl Starfelt advancing into midfield. In trying to find Rogic his pass is cut out and there is acres of space behind him to exploit. 

In equal measure, if this pass comes off, Celtic have a near-perfect shape to progress the ball vertically into a dangerous area. Turnbull and Forrest are occupying different heights of the pitch to allow this. Taylor's inverted position grants Forrest the opportunity to be one-on-one with his man.

This passage of play neatly summates what Postecoglou trades off in his tactical set-up. In an effort to overload and overwhelm the opposition, his team take these risks, as opposed to building up in a more conservative manner that would better protect against transition but perhaps not hurt the opposition in the same way.

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In transition on Sunday, there will be gaps that Rangers can exploit. Often, this is when they play their best football. Similarly, the prospect of Alfredo Morelos rolling a defender while one-on-one is a strength his team will try to utilise offensively. Supporters will be desperate to see Kent and Scott Wright available to play due to their pace.

Gerrard's team have not pressed well at all so far this season, with even Alashkert managing to take advantage at times of their lack of cohesion as a unit.

Goal-kicks, as well as turnovers, feel like they could be significant. Against AZ, the Parkhead side found joy at points when playing out from the back, but they have also lost the ball in terrible areas on more than one occasion in recent weeks. 

AZ tried to funnel play narrowly as a front four and show Stephen Welsh infield here, but the defender was able to quickly turn his hips and find Taylor. The left-back in turn found McGregor and he progressed the ball down the left.

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If Rangers press well they could pick their opponents apart, if they are just a yard or two off - as has been the case in other matches this season - Celtic could play through them vertically and quickly. 

In this situation, they built play down the left before witching possession to the right where Abada took a heavy touch bearing down on goal as AZ had committed men forward to press.

READ MORE: Rangers' First Blood: Five famous season-opening victories over Celtic - Martyn Ramsay

Despite these defensive frailties, Celtic have looked very good going forward in recent matches. They are, as mentioned, an aggressive side who can move the ball side to side very quickly and overwhelm teams with their numbers in attack. On each flank, they have raw pace and often build-up down the left and switch play to Abada who possesses excellent one-on-one abilities.

When managing the Australian national team, Postecoglou said this about his philosophy: "Our motto is never take a backward step and this is incorporated in everything from our preparation to even our style of play."

He is an all-out attack manager, more focused on implementing his game plan than adapting to the oppositions, which can produce exciting and successful football. A slightly more balanced home side will hope to take advantage of the space that method leaves.

How will Rangers set up?

In our long-read on Michael Beale’s coaching philosophy, we explained his opinion of how an attack should be structured. In his mind, a coach should be obsessed with overloading and upsetting the defensive line and condition the direction of their attack play largely on where the space is available to exploit.

With that said, it will be interesting to see how Rangers set up. It is not yet apparent who will be available of course after Covid cases at the club.

In the last Old Firm game of season 20/21, Gerrard deployed a 4-3-1-2 formation that saw Roofe and Morelos play tight to both Celtic centre-backs and possession afforded to either full-back, while Kent isolated himself on the pivot.

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This would be the likely choice of front three again, but Gerrard and Beale will want to exploit the space Celtic leave and perhaps that could see more of a flexible formation. Morelos is so dangerous in the right channel, while Kent could sit centrally without the ball and offer curved runs behind from the left channel when possession turns over. Connor Goldson's long passes to Kent seem custom made for such an occasion.

In the first Old Firm game of last season, the Ibrox side changed their approach to exploit Celtic's system. A new managerial set-up is in place across the city of course, but this shows the willingness of the Rangers coaching staff to adapt their own system if weaknesses in the opposing side are glaring enough.

Kent and Brandon Barker stayed wide and high to drag either centre-back out, with James Tavernier and Borna Barisic sitting deeper to invite pressure from opposing wing-backs. This led to Kent isolating Kris Ajer and winning a free-kick that led to the first goal.

It's important that the host's set-up with a view to exploiting the space wherever it may be. A 4-3-1-2 out of possession would make sense when pressing from the front and would protect the centre. The flexibility to adapt that front three to expose wide areas when in possession of the ball could be key.