HAVING entered the winter break with a six-point buffer, Rangers travel to Celtic Park tomorrow with just two points separating first and second in the Scottish Premiership.
However, bolstered by the arrival of Aaron Ramsey on loan from Juventus and leaving the window with a squad stronger than the one that entered, Giovanni van Bronckhorst’s team travel East with plenty of optimism.
Early in the season, Celtic’s regular defensive calamities combined with their own scar tissue from a torrid 2020/21 campaign gave birth to a narrative that Ange Postecoglou’s style was destined to fail in Scotland. It hasn't and his team have outperformed their rivals based on underlying numbers.
The travelling Ibrox contingent will remain confident nonetheless that an acceleration into gears they're still to do through this season can return a favourable outcome in May.
With the momentum arguably in Celtic's favour after the weekend come kick-off, how will Rangers seek to exploit the hosts' weaknesses and take all three points?
Celtic's system
Since Giovanni van Bronckhorst arrived at Ibrox he has gradually given full-backs greater influence infield, whether that be Borna Barisic helping the team to build beyond the first line of pressure or James Tavernier making inverted runs.
Postecoglou's use of inverted full-backs is more pronounced with either player coming infield to form a 2-3 structure in possession.
This allows either winger to stretch the pitch and grants attacking freedom to their No.8s, crowding the centre of the pitch to protect against counterattacks and help retain pressure on opponents.
Speaking after his October manager of the month award, the manager said: “I want my attacking players in attacking positions as much as possible. When you play your full-backs in traditional areas they’re the ones most advanced, crossing the ball in or trying to take on the opposition. That’s not their skill set, you want to see your wingers doing that. Bringing the full-backs inside gives me numbers in there, allows me to leave my wingers in advanced positions.”
Of course, there is no perfect tactic and this attack-heavy focus leaves areas of the pitch the Ibrox side can take advantage of.
Stretching the pitch
When in possession of the ball, Rangers need to move their opponent's structure and take advantage of Postecoglou's high and wide wingers.
A Real Betis goal in the Europa League this season demonstrates the value of attacking the side with width and switches of play.
Juaquin receives the ball in plenty of space because Ruibal started wide and rotated infield as the switch occurred, taking the left-back (Liam Scales) inside and allowing Joaquin to attack with momentum.
With Scales inside, a covering winger (Mikey Johnson) is beaten all too easily one-v-one and Joaquin has time to pick out his man at the edge of the area.
Betis created a ‘qualitative overload’ on the right, isolating an attacker against a weak defensive opponent to formulate an advantage, with a simple switch of play and rotation.
Under van Bronckhorst, Rangers have started to use similar movements in order to maximise one-v-one duels in attacking areas.
In their first game together this Saturday, Amad Tavernier showed good awareness early in the second half to create a similar ‘qualitative’ overload.
Notice that Jake Vokins, seeing Tavernier come infield, has his arm lifted, presumably instructing Regan Charles-Cook (between Tavernier and Amad) to stay close to Amad as Tavernier moves infield.
However, the simple rotation unmarks both players and as Tavernier moves into the box he also opens the passing lane towards Amad, who can receive in space.
As in the Betis example, a winger receiving with so much space in an advantageous area is a real threat and Vokins can’t get close to Amad for fear of being beaten. The youngster nearly scores himself and sees Tavernier finish on the rebound.
Hitting the half-spaces
An Ian Harkes’ header last year shows further vulnerability Celtic have seen exposed when facing attacks originating from wide areas.
With play shifting to the left, the attacking focus of either winger leaves Dundee United’s left-back Scott McMann free. His opposing full-back Anthony Ralston is being occupied by the run of Ilmari Niskanen into the half-space.
Again this ‘qualitative superiority’ shows, the United winger can isolate the full-back who has been made to recover his position, there is subsequent time to pick out a player arriving in the area and Harkes’ scores.
If Amad and Ryan Kent are able to get on the ball in these areas success should follow.
Kent’s skills are well versed in the Scottish Premiership while Amad on his debut showcased the diagonal runs he prefers to make in high areas (highlighted in his carry map below), which should prove a perfect threat on Wednesday.
On occasion, however, it may prove useful to use wide outlets as decoys and instead exploit the half-spaces as United demonstrate above.
Take Alloa’s recent goal in the cup as an example. Jon Robertson makes a run into the half-space between Celtic’s left-back and centre-back because his team are maximising the pitch and stretching their opponents, pinning either full-back as a result.
This offers an avenue into a promising area and again there is an opportunity to find a teammate as opposed to delivering a hopeful cross.
The sighting of Scott Arfield and Aribo running into such gaps opened up similarly by pinning full-backs wide, has been constant since van Bronckhorst arrived and more recently the inverted movement of Tavernier has made its mark. Both could prove key to exploiting the gaps that will inevitably present themselves in Glasgow’s East End.
Crosses and transitions
Crosses both from open play and dead balls have been a source of weakness all season at Parkhead.
Focusing specifically on the Premiership, five of the 12 goals Celtic have conceded have originated from crosses and four from corners.
With Kemar Roofe likely to start centrally, his movement from the deliveries of either full-back may prove valuable.
In transition is perhaps where the game will be won and lost and it is this combination of quick attacks leading to deliveries from wide areas that could prove the Old Firm ace card.
Rangers have focused heavily on attacking opponents quickly to exploit gaps that would be closed after spells of patient build-up play recently - think of goals away at Livingston, Hibs, Hearts and Aberdeen. While this approach can lend itself to passivity and they must strike a better balance without the ball than they in the Highlands last Saturday, if they are able to win possession while Celtic are seeking to build an attack, ample space should be afforded in opportune areas.
In Livingston’s 1-0 win against Postecoglou’s men earlier in the campaign, there is a concerted effort by the hosts to win the ball back as the full-backs transition infield and leave space to attack by the side of either centre-back. Jackson Longridge is released into acres of space and has time to pick out Andrew Shinnie. Again a quality delivery from wide areas is the cause of concession.
Just before the winter break, a similar goal occurs as Carl Starfelt plays a poor pass with his right foot stepping out of defence. His one-footedness must make the centre-back Rangers’ target when setting traps to win possession high.
The defence is stretched as he loses the ball in this scenario, again the full-backs are moving infield and as such, there are gaps down the side of both centre-backs.
St Johnstone have time to pick out a cross from a high attacking area and Chris Kane bullets home a fantastic header unmarked.
A final example comes against an admittedly strong opponent in Bayer Leverkusen. As Ralston receives he attempts to open the pitch but shows too much of the ball and misplaces his pass under pressure.
The German side quickly looks to launch a counter outside of the centre. Celtic don’t have enough bodies around the ball to counter-press and Paulinho has time in a key area of the pitch to get his head up and find the goal scorer free in the area.
How should Rangers approach the tie?
The advantages of the system in use at Celtic manifests repeatedly in their aggressive attacks, high number of shots attempted and willingness to always play on the front foot. Equally the vulnerability in wide areas and the number of goals conceded from corners and crosses will concern Postecoglou.
The repetitive nature of goals that they’ve conceded clearly displays the areas of the pitch Rangers must attack. In transition Rangers’ wide attackers will receive the ball in space, and even during spells of possession if they can break the first line of pressure there will be opportunities to create advantages out wide, to deliver the ball into the box and create one-v-one opportunities.
Consideration of Celtic’s threats will come into the thinking of van Bronckhorst when deciding his team. He may well choose to stick with the XI that started in Dingwall, with the caveat that Roofe seems far more likely to start the game than Cedric Itten through the middle.
However, given the problems experienced in build-up during the first half and Rangers’ own need to protect and defend their half-spaces as Jota and Abada take the attention of Tavernier and Barisic, selecting one of Ryan Jack or James Sands next to Glen Kamara could prove wise.
Jack has yet to start this season so his inclusion seems unlikely and although Sands didn’t excite last week against Livingston, he is a strong defensive presence who attends to danger, while comfortable enough on the ball to be thrown into an Old Firm.
Particularly when either full-back is isolated by Celtic’s wingers, Rangers need to be vigilant and defend the highlighted half-spaces. Something Kamara may need support with at the base of midfield with a No.6 partner.
The home side will start aggressively and try to dominate the ball. Van Bronckhorst's side cannot sit too deep and give up control. However, for Celtic's strengths Rangers will know that their weaknesses corroborate with the abilities of key attackers such as Aribo, Amad and Kent.
If they choose their moments and play with incision, three points could be recorded.
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