WHEN quizzed recently about his side’s defensive downturn since the new year, Giovanni van Bronckhorst switched the focus away from his backline.
“The first thing is to score more goals with the chances we have,” he commented. “We have to be more ruthless.”
The concessions which proved so costly in recent draws against Motherwell and Ross County, in particular, were acknowledged. They were both ties in which Rangers' superior chance creation numbers didn’t translate into three points.
And despite no drop from the underlying numbers of last season when a 55th league title was brought back to Ibrox in unbeaten fashion, Rangers are conceding more goals and scoring fewer.
Before departing, Steven Gerrard often referenced two key areas while dissecting performances. His team often performed well “between both boxes” while lacking the cutting edge to “win the boxes”. The heights of 55 may feel long ago, albeit performance numbers haven't nosedived over the course of this season. Chances didn’t evaporate and opponents haven’t started to dominate.
Rather, fine margins in both boxes have proved costly and leave the prospect of a league title very much in the balance.
Rangers need a perfect nine-game run-in to win a 56th league title. How far then are their performances achieving the results necessary? All the stats below are taken from the Scottish Premiership.
xG and xG conceded are metrics that value the quality of chance a team is creating and conceding. xG (expected goals) measures the probability that a shot will result in a goal based on a number of factors such as shot location, opposition location and the pass that assisted the effort.
A team could have 30 shots that are all of low quality and the opposition three of high quality, xG adds context to these types of scenarios to offer a better understanding of what happens on the pitch.
Nominally, a side’s underlying numbers will ‘catch them up’ if, for example, they are scoring a higher number of goals than the quality of chances they’re creating merits or the defence is outperforming at the other end.
Last season Rangers did just that. Scoring 85 goals from an xG of 67.47 and conceding 13 goals from an xG of 26.36. That’s not to say their performances didn’t merit the points attained whatsoever, rather they were playing at the very peak of their powers.
This season that peak performance has flattened. From an xG of 56.12 Rangers have scored 53 goals and from an xG conceded total of 20.68, opponents have amassed 22 goals.
As shown below, there has not been a huge swing in underlying numbers.
Chance creation has actually improved and shots are up, but the side is scoring fewer goals per game. Goals conceded have more than doubled from the previous campaign, despite the fact that xG conceded has only risen only 0.01 per 90.
Over the course of the season, more chances are being created and fewer goals are being scored. Meanwhile, the quality of opportunities conceded has stayed the same, unfortunately, the number of goals has risen substantially.
The big question is why? To start with the defence, upheaval and individual mistakes can take a large portion of the blame, as detailed by the Rangers Review recently Allan McGregor’s performance levels have dropped and despite saving an above-average number of goals over the course of the season, he has been at fault on a number of occasions throughout the campaign.
The team’s predictable style under Gerrard became their underpinning defensively in the season’s early months and the structure so successful previously began to develop clear weaknesses, such as wide overloads and vertical runs. Furthermore, under the new regime, a change in the system has resulted in a break from the compact shape that excelled at protecting leads and defending high up the pitch.
Underperformance and a lack of goal scorers in the front line is the reason for a significant drop in xG overperformance.
Take a look at Rangers’ xG table, measuring the players who take the highest value shots, from this season.
Of the top five players deemed most dangerous, only two start regularly. Key players such as Joe Aribo and Ryan Kent don’t possess the goal threat of Fashion Sakala or Kemar Roofe, for all the former's qualities.
Indeed, Sakala has the highest Shot On-Ball Value in the team (0.13), the third-highest OBV (0.37) and third-highest Dribble and Carry OBV. OBV, measuring every action on the pitch to offer a holistic view of the player’s contribution, pinpoints the Zambian as a player who contributes in numerous ways.
Roofe does not boast the off-ball ability or pace of the summer arrival. Nevertheless, from an xG total of 10.18, the forward amassed 14 goals last campaign, an overperformance of nearly four.
Ianis Hagi and Roofe grabbed 34 goals and assists between them last season, to this point they have five. Kent had 18 goals and assists in 2020/21 and this campaign five. Joe Aribo is up one from nine last year to ten and Sakala is a summer addition with eight.
However, when compared season-upon-season there are only two players, James Tavernier and Alfredo Morelos, hitting the numbers expected of them compared to 2020/21.
Morelos has 12 goals from 14.51xG, Kent two goals from 3.13xG and Scott Arfield four from 5.38xG.
StatsBomb’s over/underperformance table puts the fine margins into context. When measuring the actual contribution of goals and assists compared to the expected contribution of goals and assists, the season's reality is laid bare compared to 2020/21.
To win the league Rangers need to win the boxes and time is running out to achieve clinical consistency.
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