Rangers' first half underperformance laid bare as chance creation falls

But Rangers have played enough domestic football to attract criticism for their perceived lack of intensity during the first half of matches.

Underlying numbers solidify the widely shared opinion that Giovanni van Bronckhorst’s men have struggled to create prior to half-time, with the Gers averaging 0.44xG (expected goals) in the first half compared to 1.03xG in the second.

Saturday’s match against Hibs was, in many ways, a continuation of meetings with Livingston, St Johnstone and Kilmarnock. Prior to James Tavernier’s 45th-minute penalty in Edinburgh, the visitors had recorded just 0.3xG.

It’s worth disclaiming that even after going down to nine men, Rangers created sufficient chances to travel back down the M8 with three points 59 times out of 100. Given they’ve finished every league game stronger than they’ve started, it’s reasonable to suggest that if they had avoided two red cards, that probability would’ve been higher.

But why have first-half performances offered so little in front of goal? All data used below applies solely to the Scottish Premiership and excludes European fixtures. Also, xG totals do not include penalties. 

Firstly, Rangers’ base layer chance creation numbers are slightly down on last season in the Scottish Premiership. While it's too early to draw conclusive comparisons, there are lessons to be learned from the early encounters.

Per 90, they’ve averaged 1.47xG compared to 1.89xG last season. If you need a reminder, xG is a predictive model that assesses the likelihood of scoring from a shot, taking into account the location, type of assist, goalkeeping position and context.

Of course, four matches is a small sample size within the 38-game season. Still, after playing a newly-promoted team in Kilmarnock and sides that finished seventh (Livingston), eighth (Hibs) and 11th (St Johnstone) last season, it’s not unfair to expect more in front of goal.

After four games, their average xG is marginally higher than Motherwell (1.43xG) and slightly lower than Aberdeen (1.51xG).

StatsBomb's shot timing map shows Rangers are creating little early on in matches and enjoy their best spell between 45-70 minutes.

While this also broadly applies to 2021/22, the side’s overall chance creation last season was far more healthy on average.

This season, the Ibrox side have attempted 37 shots and scored one open play goal from 1.79xG, resulting in 0.04xG/Shot. xG/Shot simply measures the average expected goals per shot.

20 of those efforts have come from outside the box, with the blue shade outlining low-quality xG shooting locations. There is a distinct lack of efforts from inside the penalty box, let alone the six-yard box.

After the restart, things look better. Despite attempting one fewer shot, 36, van Bronckhorst’s side have scored eight goals from 4.13xG and attempted 15 fewer shots from outside the area, resulting in 0.11xG/Shot. Generally, the shooting locations are better and the quality of chance is higher.

What about last season? Although the disparity before and after the interval wasn’t quite as extreme, analysis of the matches van Bronckhorst managed specifically shows some similar findings. His team averaged 0.8xG in the first half compared to 1.2xG in the second.

We can see from his first game in charge against Livingston until the final day win against Hearts, Rangers took 212 shots and scored 20 goals from 20.21xG in first-half outings, with a higher 0.09xG/Shot.

Whereas after the break, the team took 267 shots and scored 26 goals from 30.85xG, with an equal 0.11xG/Shot.

The quality of chance, determined by xG/Shot, is the same in the second half of this season's matches compared to last. However, before the interval, the quality of opportunity has halved this season compared to the previous campaign.

Again, armed with the small sample-sized caveat, chance creation is clearly not as high as it could be in the opening 45 minutes. But why?

Firstly, it’s important to ascertain how much of the side’s perceived lack of tempo is instead deliberate bidding for control over the 90 minutes.

Much was made of the intensity with which Rangers ended games last season, specifically during the Old Firm Scottish Cup semi-final win at Hampden. Is it simply a case that this team save themselves for the final periods, and fairs better when more space opens up?

Speaking after the opening day win, in which his side came from behind, Tavernier stressed the half-time message had been one of calm. “45 minutes is a long time when you're 1-0 down,” he said.

Tellingly, the course of that match was dictated by half-time tactical switches as van Bronckhorst increased central bodies and isolated Ryan Kent, which leads into point two.

The Dutchman regularly impacts a game from the sidelines using substitutions and alterations. He is an intelligent tactician, able to adapt to the opposition and retain flexibility in his set-up. In his side’s previous two league ties at Ibrox he has introduced three goalscorers from the bench. 

Thirdly, looking beyond the xG holds value. What about the occasions when players don’t pull the trigger in attacking areas and, therefore, allow moments of real promise to go unrecorded? For example, Rangers twice progressed the ball into dangerous zones at Easter Road in the first half but were let down by execution in the penalty box.

Firstly, they overloaded the right-hand side before switching to Kent on the left. A classic tactic under van Bronckhorst utilised most notably in a 4-2 win over Borussia Dortmund.

Given Hibs were playing with wing-backs until the half-hour mark, Kent was able to isolate himself up against Chris Cadden as Borna Barisic’s well-timed overlap diverted the attention of Ryan Porteous. Although Jake Doyle-Hayes got over quickly to create a three-vs-two, Kent still managed to work his way into the box…

…but rather than shoot from here, he tried to go by another man…

…And lost the ball.

Later in the half, a clever rotation down the right seen the away side again break into a dangerous area, but Tom Lawrence contrived to misplace a pass into Kent…

…That had to find the target.

If a shot is attempted on both of these occasions, Rangers surely score at least once before Tavernier’s opener or at the very least, boast healthier chance creation numbers.

Van Bronckhorst cannot make individual decisions for players and on both of these occasions, poor decision-making failed to exploit dangerous moments.

On Saturday, the fact that Lee Johnson made two substitutions just before 30 minutes, and later qualified that Hibs “didn’t lay a glove on Rangers” shows van Bronckhorst's side were disrupting the opposition - even if the tempo and intensity could arguably have been higher.

Given the season remains so young and new signings are still adapting, chance creation should theoretically travel upwards as cohesion improves naturally, something van Bronckhorst reiterated recently.

But that has to be soon. In a title race that will be defined by slim margins, Rangers will require more chances than they've averaged so far to come out on top.