To an outsider, there is little in the Scottish Premiership title race. In fact, if not for Hibs’ 92nd-minute equaliser last month against nine-men, Rangers would be level on points with Celtic heading into the first international break of the season.
Ange Postecoglou’s side lost 2-0 against St Mirren on Sunday which improves the optics for Rangers who only edged past Dundee United on Saturday. Giovanni van Bronckhorst argued three previous defeats hampered decision-making and confidence after the labouring display, but the problems experienced were not exclusive to that match.
There is a growing feeling that after nearly a year in charge van Bronckhorst’s football lacks the dynamism to dominate domestically. Or perhaps more accurately, the proof is yet to emerge.
His level of European achievement is undisputed and only last month the Dutchman led Rangers into the Champions League. In addition, there is a general frustration aimed at the recent transfer window and perceived lack of long-term recruitment success.
Last week's team that faced Napoli featured no summer signings and nine players who were arrived in Steven Gerrard’s first season or before. On Saturday there was again no football for Rabbi Matondo, Ben Davies and Ridvan Yilmaz, despite the significant sums spent on securing their services this summer.
Looking at the seven-game start in hindsight, why has it proved so laborious and what is the long-term vision?
Do we know what van Bronckhorst's philosophy is?
Philosophy is defined as “a theory or attitude that acts as a guiding principle for behaviour”. ‘Managerial philosophy’ can be an ambiguous term and different people take it to mean different things. It’s clear van Bronckhorst identifies with the phrase based on his pre-Napoli press conference.
“There’s nothing to change about philosophy,” he said.
“Two weeks ago we qualified for Champions League, everyone was praised. Two defeats later it looks like we haven’t performed in the last couple of years. That’s the dynamic of football. So I’m not changing anything about my philosophy and how I want to play. Of course, there’s lots of room of improvement but the most disappointing element of the last couple of games is that we didn’t perform.”
So what is van Bronckhorst’s philosophy?
It’s fair to suggest that after almost a year of his football, he does not view philosophy as restrictive to a favoured formation or style. However, to this writer his football has some ‘guiding principles’:
- Tactical flexibility: Speaking after last week’s game with Napoli, Borna Barisic said “we always adapt a little bit to the opponent’s style and adapt how we play”. In Europe, van Bronckhorst’s ability to target opposition weaknesses and remain unpredictable was influential on the road to Seville. For better or for worse, this adaptability is also present domestically. For example, his team played with positional fluidity to disrupt Ross County’s man-marking system and the week previously when facing St Johnstone, pushed John Lundstram high from his No.6 role to create midfield overloads. There are always tweaks depending on the opponent.
- In-game alterations: Consistently, tactical tinkering has catalysed victories in the past year. At half-time on the opening day of the season, Rangers changed shape to get Ryan Kent one-v-one and memorably against Borussia Dortmund, the manager changed his approach altogether at half-time to stem the Germans' momentum. There is a long list of occasions in which he’s altered the course of games from the touchline, a skill that shouldn’t be underestimated. A cynic would argue, however, that the need to change particularly against a lower level of opposition is merely correcting mistakes.
- Control: Domestically, and particularly at home, there appears a clear instruction to play with patience and control. Again, for better or for worse. This normally plays out in relatively slow domestic starts. So far this season, Rangers have scored four open play first-half goals and created 4.84xG before the break and 11 open play goals from 6.85xG after the break.
- Tactical certainties: Van Bronckhorst has evolved the blueprint he first established. Moving away from fielding two wingers and one single pivot and adapting the role of either full-back. We know he likes to play with one, physical central striker, attack with one-v-one duels and defend using a man-orientated approach, which deviates from the compact pressing unit deployed by Gerrard. Although his favoured formation or set-up is hard to distinguish, these certain elements are present in most games.
Based on the evidence of the past year this philosophy has been at its best in big games. When adapting to European opponents, or in the 2-1 Scottish Cup Old Firm win, and in games where the atmosphere sets the tempo. However, the defensive organisation and tactical flexibility has not lent itself quite as favourably to domestic football.
The season so far
Although Rangers are only two points behind in the title race the underlying numbers paint a less optimistic picture. Looking at the xG difference table, which charts the xG conceded and created, they’ve averaged 0.94 to Celtic’s 2.12 per 90.
Analysis of their StatsBomb attacking radar from the admittedly small sample size of seven domestic games so far this season compared to 2021/22 dissects this further. Blue depicts last season and red this season.
What is this radar telling you? In short, the closer to the boundary the better.
- Rangers’ chance creation, measured by expected goals (xG), is slightly down. They’ve taken a similar number of shots but their shot distance has increased. Statistically speaking, the closer you are to a goal the more likely you are to score. Set-piece xG has also dropped by more than half of last season's total. This is an important point given the Ibrox side scored 15 goals from set-pieces last season.
- Despite creating 0.24xG less per game, goals per game has risen by 0.18. Most likely, this is in owing to Antonio Colak’s incisive finishing with the forward scoring six goals from 3.04xG, a notable overperformance.
- The pace towards goal, which charts how quickly a team builds play, is slightly down as is the number of successful dribbles. This is particularly important given the emphasis van Bronckhorst places on one-vs-one duels. The team have also averaged around 45 more passes per game. All of which suggest a slightly slower pace of play.
Looking at the 14 open play goals scored so far this season provides further context. We’ve split the goals into three categories expanded upon below; breaking down, transitioning and counterattacking.
Breaking down
A goal scored after creating a chance against an opponent who is encamped around their penalty box.
Rangers have scored five goals that fit this description:
Scott Arfield vs Livingston
Malik Tillman vs St Johnstone
Tom Lawrence vs St Johnstone
Antonio Colak’s first vs Ross County
Antonio Colak’s second vs Dundee United
Here’s Colak’s first strike against County as an example. Interplay on the right against a deep defence is followed by Scott Wright’s cross and the Croatian’s finish.
Counterattacking
A goal scored after regaining the ball and attacking the opposition while their defensive line is disorganised.
Rangers have scored five goals that fit this description:
Antonio Colak vs St Johnstone
Scott Arfield vs St Johnstone
Antonio Colak’s first goal vs Dundee United
Antonio Colak vs Kilmarnock
Alfredo Morelos vs Kilmarnock
Here’s Morelos’ goal against Kilmarnock as an example. Steven Davis’ aggressive counter-pressing allows Rangers to win the ball back, launch a quick attack through an unorganised defence and score.
Transitioning
A goal scored after baiting the opposition press, playing through it and scoring. This differentiates from a ‘breaking down’ goal because the team plays into space, and from a 'counterattack' goal because the opposition is organised, but not sitting in a low block.
Rangers have scored four goals that fit this description:
John Lundstram vs Ross County
Tom Lawrence vs Hibs
Antonio Colak’s second vs Ross County
Steven Davis vs Ross County
Here’s Lawrence’s header against Hibs as an example. Rangers play through the thirds, work the ball left and following a Barisic overlap Lawrence can arrive in the box and head home.
With five goals coming when breaking down the low block and nine goals following attacks launched into space, we can see the emergence of a theme that helps diagnose some of the issues experienced. Is it as simple as saying this team and van Bronckhorst’s philosophy fairs better when attacking space?
The 'horseshoe' and square pegs in round holes
In recent weeks the term ‘horseshoe’ has been a consistent criticism of van Bronckhorst’s football, referencing the U-shaped possessional structure that plays out when penetrative central passes are not forthcoming. Saturday’s match provides a useful case study.
The successful open play passes played are resemblant to this U-shape.
It’s worth noting that part of this may be deliberate. Kent and Barisic provide a consistent creative outlet and Rangers’ moves are often primed to end up on the left-hand side. Contrastingly, there were few redeeming features from the win against Dundee United and if performances continue in that vein over the course of the season a league title in May will be hard to come by.
Johan Cruyff once said: “When you play a match, it is statistically proven that players actually have the ball 3 minutes on average. So, the most important thing is: what do you do during those 87 minutes when you do not have the ball.”
When playing against defensive blocks off-ball movement is imperative. To create separation from markers, manipulate space and force openings. Intelligent off-ball movement makes life uncomfortable for a defence and forces them out of shape.
Here’s an example away at Ross County last year. Tavernier moves forward and rotates infield while Amad Diallo makes a countermovement. This creates a passing lane into the winger who has separation from his marker. His subsequent shot creates a goal.
It’s a small detail but makes the difference against a robust and well-organised defence.
It's difficult to quantify but based on the eye test, this type of movement to create space and disrupt defences has been lacking so far this season.
On Saturday for example, Kent was often left to receive the ball with a man on his back or three players to beat. Until a quicker attack led to Colak’s second.
Saturday’s pass network, which charts the average position from which every player passed the ball, illustrates the other main issue: goal threat.
Colak is isolated, Kent’s involvement is from deep and the two No.8s (Charlie McCann and Ryan Jack) are both more likely to come towards the ball than offer a genuine goal threat. Van Bronckhorst indirectly acknowledged this in his post-match press conference when speaking about McCann, saying: “He had some chances as well and that’s something he has to improve.”
McCann was the best performer in the centre of midfield and moved play forwards when possible, but is perhaps more suited to playing deeper.
Compare that to a 4-0 win over Ross County, which crucially featured Lawrence and Tillman as the midfield pairing.
They played closer to Colak, provided great goal threat and received the ball centrally which stopped possession from always going around the opposition.
It’s hard to argue the team selected on Saturday possesses the goal threat, dynamism and unpredictability to constantly beat blocks. If we look at the xG tally from the season so far, Tillman and Lawrence are clearly the second most likely goal threats.
They've also averaged more touches in the opposition box than any player aside from Colak.
Lawrence could be back after the international break and going forward, it feels imperative that both he and Tillman nail down the attacking midfield slots to alleviate Rangers' struggles domestically.
When domestic performances became stodgy last season, it was usually owing to a lack of creativity and goalscorers in midfield. It seems as though van Bronckhorst needs to get the right personnel in this area to inject tempo and threat into his controlled style of play.
He will hope to use the international break as a moment to reset and improve. While only two points behind, his team can only rely on themselves if they want to win this league title and improving the attacking play is a non-negotiable for such ambition to be realised.
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