IT'S easy to look at the top line of Rangers’ defeat against St Johnstone and argue that they should’ve won on the basis of chances.
29 shots to the hosts’ 11 and 1.64xG to 0.65xG. It’s a detail Giovanni van Bronckhorst highlighted post-match: “You can decide the game with the chances we had. We hit the bar twice and had chances to score more goals.”
While it’s true that a 2-1 defeat was slightly harsh on the basis of chances, this was a story of quantity over quality and ultimately, the visitors got what they deserved. A look at their shot map offers proof.
11 of 29 efforts were blocked (highlighted in grey) and the remainder of the map is largely populated by shades of blue, which indicates a low-quality of chance. 17 shots were attempted from 12 yards or further. The only entry that escapes the blue is a yellowing effort to the left of the six-yard box, an early Malik Tillman chance.
Fashion Sakala had eight shots and John Lundstram seven. James Tavernier, who eventually got a goal back, was next in line with five.
According to StatsBomb Rangers' highest-value chance was Ben Davies’ early header (0.13xG) which was blocked at the near post.
If you need a reminder xG, expected goals, is a metric designed to measure the probability of a shot resulting in a goal.
According to StatsBomb, "An xG model uses historical information from thousands of shots with similar characteristics to estimate the likelihood of a goal on a scale between 0 and 1."
The average xG of Rangers’ shots was 0.06, the second-lowest total in the entire league over the weekend.
Yes, they could have evened things up with Lundstram’s late piledriver and halved the deficit thanks to Tavernier pulling the trigger, but there is no future in relying on long shots over the course of a season. This game epitomised the struggles faced against set defences.
St Johnstone were narrow in and out of possession. Along with their back five, James Brown and Adam Montgomery tucked in at wing-back behind a midfield three and strike partnership. The centre of the pitch was congested, explaining the high number of blocked shots and low number of quality chances available to the visitors.
Shots were repeatedly blocked from positions that offered little likelihood of a goal…
And attempted from unrealistic angles and locations…
Van Bronckhorst reasoned that Aberdeen’s approach at Ibrox last time out suited his team because of the space afforded. Rangers looked far improved in the 4-1 victory. The difficulty is, that particular game state is rarely faced by his team. More often than not, the task is to generate space before generating chances but Rangers couldn't manage that task in Perth.
St Johnstone’s 109 blocks, clearances and interceptions on the day capture this. They were comfortable granting Rangers control of the ball, contesting the centre and defending their box.
In a sense, the fact the hosts scored from a long-range effort of their own, Tavernier eventually found the net from the edge of the box and Lundstram cracked the crossbar from distance illustrates this point perfectly.
Things could’ve gone the other way but didn't and title-winning teams cannot rely on that toss-up to win matches. As a result, Rangers sit seven points behind Celtic in early November.
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