Rangers recovered from 2-0 and 3-1 down at Dens Park on Saturday to earn a dramatic 4-3 comeback win over Dundee.
Barry Ferguson cut a frustrated figure post-match, referencing the return of “so many bad habits”, but insisted that this was a game his side would’ve lost “fix or six weeks ago”.
Here’s a closer look at some of the key talking points from the game including Hamza Igamane's role, Jack Butland's form and Cyriel Dessers' goalscoring/xG numbers.
One formation extreme to the other…
Speaking in the build-up to Saturday’s fixture Neil McCann was asked about the key difference between Ferguson’s Rangers to Philippe Clement’s saying: “Philippe and his coaching team had a certain way of playing and it was very structured in terms of the formation never really changed that much. The personnel would change within it, but I think the gaffer, Fergie, has shown that he's adaptable to different opposition.”
If Ferguson merits some praise for changing things up quickly at half-time then criticism is also due for the approach from the start. The visitors opted for a back five with three centre-backs, a No.8 at No.10 and two full-backs at wing-back. The ball wouldn’t stick high up the pitch and attacks broke down because, in all reality, Rangers only had two true attacking profiles on the pitch. The deep average passing positions from that opening 45 minutes tell their own story.
If that decision was one extreme, the coaching staff went to the other at the break. Bringing on Bailey Rice and Ianis Hagi, the away side went from a conservative 5-3-2 to an aggressive 4-3-3.
Ferguson’s changes worked in the end according to the result but while Rangers came out on top on this occasion, the data shows a tight game that could’ve also spun in the home side’s favour with Simon Murray crashing the post at 3-3 in injury time.
What does data say about Dessers’ finishing?
12 shots, 2.01xG, one goal, one offside goal, one finish cleared off the line - this was the full Cyriel Dessers experience. The Nigerian forward’s quality is his ability to keep on running and in injury time, the 30-year-old got his rewards.
“It was actually not that hard [to keep positive on Saturday] because as a striker when you kick a ball, you feel if it's a good finish or not,” he told the press post-match.
“And in the first half, four times, I hit the ball and I felt like that's a good finish, that could be a goal and three times it was a save and one time, clearance off the goal line. I said it before, like, even the best strikers in the world miss chances, and they score a lot as well, but they miss chances as well, so, of course, I will miss some chances, but I will also score a lot.”
Dessers’ 12 shots in one game was the second-highest single-game total of his Rangers career.
Overall this season the forward has 12 goals from 10.71xG in the Scottish Premiership, representing a slight overperformance. Indeed, of all players in the league who’ve managed over 900 minutes Dessers has the second-best non-penalty goals per 90. His 0.62 is a decimal point behind Celtic’s departed Kyogo and two ahead of Daizen Maeda at 0.60.
What do the numbers say on Butland?
Fresh from all but winning a penalty shoot-out in the Europa League before the international break this performance from Jack Butland was a return to the fragile form he’s shown at points of the season.
Read more:
New UEFA rules and stadium expansion - How much can new owners invest in Rangers?
Why Barry Ferguson's future as Rangers manager could depend on next two matches
Interestingly, throughout the campaign, Butland has performed above average in his shot-stopping by three goals. GSAA (Goals Saved Above Average) is defined as: “How many goals did the keeper save/concede versus expectation (post-shot xG faced)? This is representative of how many goals the goalkeeper's saves prevented within a season.”
On Saturday, Butland’s number was -0.28, a number that doesn’t consider the flapping moment that led to the doubling of Dundee’s lead.
However, over the season the Englishman is in a positive 3.05 GSAA return domestically.
The issue of this campaign for the No.1 has undoubtedly been inconsistency. Butland had above-average games statistically in both legs against Fenherbache but below-average games in the recent home defeat with Motherwell and Saturday’s trip to Dens which could’ve proved so costly on another day. Like so many of his teammates, whether concentration or the ability to turn in performances every three days, it is consistency that’s letting the 32-year-old down on occasion.
Is Igamane being misused?
Arguably, Hamza Igamane drew the ire of his manager more than any other player at Dens in the first-half and yet, the Moroccan was single-handily linking and creating Rangers attacks. On another day he could’ve feasibly created three goals for Dessers.
What’s been glossed over in the conversation about Igamane’s drop-off in front of goal (he has scored just once since nine goals in 10 league games from December to January) is the role he’s playing. Rarely has the 22-year-old been fielded as the team’s highest attacker in the past two months since Danilo’s injury in mid-January. A reliance on Igamane to drop and link play can benefit the team, albeit he’s sometimes guilty of surrendering the ball too often because he’s not used to receiving in such deep areas. However, there’s an argument that not playing as a No.9 is not refining the striker’s development.
Look at the areas Igamane received the ball in on Saturday, rarely in the final third and often in deep positions.
In the ten 90 minutes Igamane played during December and January up until the 3-0 home win over Aberdeen, the forward’s stats in the Scottish Premiership per 90 read:
0.51xG
4.29 shots
9.2 touches in the opposition’s box
0.89 goals
And in the six 90 minutes he’s played since in said deeper role:
0.22xG
3.79 shots
3.95 touches in the opposition's box
0.16 goals
Since Danilo was injured, while Igamane’s xG assisted is up marginally (0.09 to 0.23) he isn’t getting into the final third often enough and a decrease in shots, xG and touches in the penalty area show as much.
This is a balance that must be struck between now and the end of the campaign. While Ferguson clearly favours the experience of individuals like Tom Lawrence and Dessers, what is the value in not playing Clinton Nsiala, Hamza Igamane and more in favoured positions between now and May? After all, it is their valuations that will grow if properly developed and Igamane will make Rangers far more money playing as a forward than this current in-between role.
Share