Jose Mourinho’s parting gift at Ibrox last month, after Rangers had knocked out his Fenerbache side, was to suggest it would be ‘phenomenal’ for Barry Ferguson’s men to make it past Athletic Bilbao. Let’s just say he didn’t mean it as a premature compliment.
"In football, anything is possible, but I played against Bilbao in the league phase and Bilbao is a stronger team.”
Undoubtedly, a double-header against Ernesto Valverde’s side is a step up from Mourinho’s Turkish team. Bilbao, winners of last season’s Copa Del Rey, sit fourth in La Liga and have the carrot of a home final at Estadio de San Mames to play for. Can Rangers defy the odds again? Here’s a closer look at the test they’ll face to reach the final four.
Nominally lining up in a 4-2-3-1, Athletic’s team can generally be split into two halves. Their front four, always comprising of the dangerous Williams brothers, is complemented by a No.10 who remains closer to the centre-forward than the midfield two. Behind that, both full-backs occupy traditional zones and only really rotate inside the park to cover the forward runs of one of the No.6s (normally 21-year-old Mikel Jauregizar with Ruiz de Galarreta or Benat Prados remaining the deepest midfielder). Keep an eye out for the returning Oihan Sancet, if anyone can strike a ball in the centre of the park for the Spaniard it is their No.8, he is their secret attacking weapon behind the obvious Inaki and Nico with 13 goals in 21 matches from midfield this season.
Here’s an example of Bilbao's pass network from a recent group stage win over Viktoria Plzen. Notice how close the No.10 (Álex Berenguer) and No.9 (Gorka Guruzeta) operate ahead of a very structured system. The team is often slightly tilted in midfield towards the right side given the right-footed Inaki Williams drives on the outside, while younger brother Nico is inverting from the left.
Athletic boasts the expected diversity in their game and technical floor, which you’d expect from a team that is amongst the best in La Liga. They’re not infallible, of course, and lost the first leg of their previous round to Roma before turning things around at home with a man advantage. However, having finished second in the group phase and only missing out on the top spot due to goal difference, it is accurate to say opponents at this level do not come much tougher.
The fact the top three players in their xG/90 chart are both wingers (Nico and Inaki Williams) alongside No.8 Sancet is descriptive of how Valverde’s side plays, with wingers and their attacking midfielder outsourcing any reliance on a goalscoring No.9. Attacking with width directly and relying on cut-back opportunities when not playing into space.
What do the stats say?
In each of the below radars, red represents Rangers and blue Bilbao. The closer to the boundary line, and higher the numerical rating and the better the side is in each metric compared to the rest of the competition. For example, the 6.5 high press shots per 90 managed by Rangers is amongst the highest in the whole tournament (99th percentile).
Here’s a closer look at how the two clubs compare in attack.
Interestingly, after 10 games a piece Rangers can boast very respectable attacking numbers in the Europa League. They have a higher xG/90 than Bilbao (the fourth-highest in the competition) and average a better quality of chance (xG/Shot). As mentioned above they’re playing into space more often, with a higher proportion of counter-attacking and high-press shots. The Spanish side’s set-piece threat is far more pronounced.
Here's how the two teams compare in defence.
If Rangers’ attacking numbers compared well to Bilbao their defensive performance is far weaker. This is where you can see real variance in how both teams control matches - while Bilbao are attacking into space less frequently and not necessarily creating a higher quality of chance, they’re strengthened by conceding little in response. While in isolation Rangers may appear as the team who’s creating more, Bilbao have a far higher degree of control.
And what about in possession?
Again, the two side’s numbers with the ball show a clash in style. Athletic are likely to hold more possession but their 426 successful passes average is well below the competition’s highest (Manchester United at 510). All that to say, while the Basque team are possession-heavy they are not a possession-reliant team, with their game model centred on the wide threat carried by Nico and Inaki Williams, alongside their variety from crosses. They are as comfortable attacking into space as they are holding possession.
Where are Bilbao dangerous?
Let’s start with the obvious danger points Rangers will need to combat over two legs - the Williams brothers. Athletic’s entire game model is reliant on the duo's speed and individualism. Comparing their successful carries into the final third across the games vs Roma demonstrates slight nuances to their games. Nico is more likely to play in narrow zones while still hugging the touchline on occasion...
Whereas Inaki is a driving force on the right side, attacking crosses at the back post and hitting the byline more frequently.
Statistically, Nico completes more dribbles than Inaki (3.58 to 0.77 per 90) but Inaki boasts a higher xG (0.38 to 0.29) and xG/Shot - quality of effort - (0.15 to 0.11).
The threats posed on either wing will be difficult to contend with in both meetings. Strikingly, of the 19 goals Athletic have scored in the competition, 17 have derived from crosses. Only five of those efforts have been headers, demonstrating the wide range of cutback goals scored.
If unable to score or shoot directly through either wing, Bilbao can attack using an array of wide crossing options. You can see how well-coached they are by the smooth cut-back goals, clean finishes in transition and lofted back-post deliveries to unsettle deep defences. While Rangers had to defend crosses well away at Fenerbahce to take a 3-1 lead back to Ibrox the threat on that occasion was the direct aerial presence of Dzeko, Talisco and others. This time around against Bilbao, they still need to counter physical threats (such as centre-forward Maroan Sannadi should he play) but it is often efforts further away from the goal, the second or third options, that pose a greater threat.
Here are a few examples of varied crossing threats. This goal scored in transition against Plzen, from Inaki to Nico, shows why Athletic are comfortable allowing the duo a little freedom from defensive responsibility - not many can keep up with them in transition.
Indeed, you'll see either winger make this second-striker run to the back post when the ball is on the opposite side of the park.
Cut-backs to the edge are also dangerous. In this example Williams earns yards due to his one-v-one threat, squeezing the opposition towards their goal but creating an unopposed shot for Jauregizar at the edge of the box.
And here against Real Valladolid, while comfortably ahead in the match, notice Inaki's driving run to the touchline and Guruzeta's well-timed back-to-front run - the chemistry in attacking phases is obvious.
This strike from No.6 Prados against Elfsborg shows why threats at the edge of the box are often more dangerous than runs closer to the goal.
With the joint-highest set-piece goals per 90 in the competition at 0.5, statistically Athletic have been so strong in their set-piece output that they should score from one such situation across the two legs.
They’ve been known to try routines at earlier spots in the competition but as of late, it’s been a variation of front-post deliveries that have troubled opponents - especially when Sannadi is in the starting 11. They are adept at exploiting their opponent's zonal marking shapes with well-timed runs, decoy movements and blocks.
Look at the goal Athletic scored to take the lead in Rome. An inswinging corner from the right targets the near-post area where Roma’s dominant header of the ball - Mancini - should be. However, Sannadi is occupying him and not making any attempt to play the ball. Two runs to the front post allow Parades a connecting header which carries the ball into the path of Williams at the back post, again running onto the ball and finishing into an empty net. Starting from deep in two waves of attack, they seem happiest attacking zonal structures where able to get a run on their direct marker.
In the home leg, while it was a direct header from left-back Bircheche that earned a lead over the two ties, look at the circumstances to create the goal. Again Sannadi is wrestling with Mancini to take the opposition’s most dominant header of the ball out of the game, and Williams is taking another centre-back (Niakate) towards the back post, to attack a potential flick-on. The aggressive, front-footed running of Bircheche and others creates the momentum to attack space unprotected by Roma’s zonal approach.
While, under Ferguson Rangers’ attacking output at set-pieces has improved, their defensive performance has been mixed at best. To go through here you sense it must be flawless.
What can Rangers target?
They say that your greatest strength can be your greatest weakness and while Athletic carry sustained threats travelling in one direction from their wingers, that can leave vulnerabilities in the other direction. Namely, and not dissimilarly to other top European teams Rangers have competed well against in recent seasons like Benfica and Real Betis, both wingers can sometimes fail to make up the hard yards in the defensive direction, allowing an opportunity to overload either wing.
In particular, if able to get one of their wing-backs attacking outside one of the full-backs, there will be chances to score in transition, the attacking route favoured on the continent.
This goal scored by Besiktas shows the threat of getting a 'man over' against the Athletic defence and creating a two-vs-one against an often isolated full-back.
Comparatively, look at the movement of Roma's left-wing back Angelino to equalise the first-leg.
Of course, as shown above, the risk they take is mitigated by the threat of leaving a rapid front four attacking into space.
Presuming Rangers play in a back five their ability to create a line of five against the Athletic back four, attacking vertically and timing runs forward, provides the best bet of opportunities.
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