Goals are never guaranteed, but when Rangers brought Bojan Miovski back to the Scottish Premiership, there was an expectation that this deal ought to succeed.
After all, the 26-year-old was entering his prime with strong experience of the league, having earned a big-money move to La Liga the year prior and managed 44 goals in all competitions over two campaigns at Aberdeen.
Surely, in a better team presented with more chances, the goals would only increase in a forward line losing the contribution of both Cyriel Dessers and Hamza Igamane?
Up until this point, things haven’t been quite as straightforward - in 733 minutes across all competitions, Miovski has managed just two goals. So what’s going wrong?
Unless stated otherwise, the data referred to is SPFL alone to allow for a proper sample size, and given the fact that Miovski has generally played second fiddle to Youssef Chermiti in the Europa League.
Rangers are not creating many opportunities
First things first, Miovski isn’t scoring many goals because he has been playing in a team that has grossly underperformed.
In his last full season with Aberdeen, Miovski was averaging 0.34xG, 2.54 shots and nine touches in the box per 90. So far this season for Rangers, he’s averaging 0.26xG, 1.45 shots and 3.7 touches in the box per 90. This Rangers side has created fewer opportunities than the last team Miovski played in.
In just over six 90 minutes, Miovski has only taken nine shots in the Scottish Premiership.
If we look at the division’s xG numbers (expected goals) Rangers’ 1.04 average is way lower than last season’s 1.73 and the two seasons prior (1.91 and 1.95). So far in the league, chance creation is about half of what Michael Beale and Philippe Clement’s teams were fashioning at their peak.
After 11 matchdays, Rangers’ chance creation places them firmly mid-table, marginally below newly-promoted Falkirk and lowly Aberdeen.
All that to say, there haven’t been that many chances for Miovski and his fellow strikers to miss all season.
The only league goal scored by the North Macedonian so far, a tap-in at the far post against Falkirk, is the type of moment Miovski thrives off of. However, closer consultation of his shot map shows the dearth of opportunities mentioned above.
Although Miovski’s 0.26xG per 90 in the brief football he has played domestically (571 minutes) shows he maybe should’ve had more than one goal, he’s not underperformed by much, with one goal from 1.53xG. That strike against Falkirk was his only shot in the six-yard box to date.
It should be noted that Miovski underperformed his xG over two seasons at Aberdeen, managing 22 open-play goals from 24.49xG and scoring 12 penalties in the league. It is logical that as Rangers improve and spend more time in the opposition final third, the No.9 should be provided with more shooting opportunities - but is it that simple?
How did Miovski score his goals before?
We ought to consider how Rangers can better play to Miovski’s strengths and later, how Miovski’s weaknesses could be contributing to his team spending less time in the final third. Firstly, what comes to mind when you think of an archetypal Miovski goal? Perhaps his goal against Wales in the most recent international break, running onto a througball against a team defending in a high line?
Or is it the forward terrorising Connor Goldson with well-timed darts between two centre-backs?
Or this type of goal scored against Celtic at Hampden in a Scottish Cup semi-final, running behind Cameron Carter-Vickers after lurking just outside of his reach?
Notice a common theme? He is a striker who generates shooting chances through sharp runs and movements, creating separation from his marker. Hanging on the last line and remaining out of the view of a centre-back, before timing his movements.
Miovski’s goals at Aberdeen, if not penalties, generally derived from the 26-year-old running behind or converting a cross. They rarely occurred against a low block unless goals derived from a proper poacher’s finish - like his strike this season against Hibs in the League Cup. With that said, it’s relevant to note that the North Macedonian has only played 223 minutes away from home compared to 406 minutes at home in the league. That’s a relevant detail because of course when playing at Ibrox , space behind a defence is a premium for Rangers strikers.
Miovski scored away from home against Falkirk and probably should’ve hit the net against Livingston with two chances, although one late header, saved by Livingston goalkeeper Jermoe Prior, would earn the corner Max Aarons scored an injury-time winner from.
The first, hanging on the last line before narrowly flashing over the bar, is the type of chance Miovski wants. Although he’d hope to finish a shooting chance like this, the fact that there’s only been one provided across the league season tells its own story.
It is too simple to suggest that there is no room for pace when playing a low block - it is how that pace is used which is important. Martin’s team simply didn’t fashion chances, whereas so far, Rohl has needed his No.9 to be a focal point to get the ball up the pitch instead of always looking behind, with more focus from the head coach on structure and being hard to beat than free-flowing football.
What can we learn from the man he replaced, Cyriel Dessers?
Coincidentally, we also saw Cyriel Dessers score a lot of these ‘Miovski-type’ goals. He too generally profited off the back of crosses or balls in behind and branded himself a striker who was at his best facing the game instead of playing with his back to goal.
Dessers scored a lot, without taking penalties. There is space for a No.9 to hang around the box and stretch the game in a possession-dominant team, but the team needs to be set up to play to those strengths. The chart below compares Dessers’ numbers last season to Miovski’s this season in the league this season, per 90.
Notice, plainly, that while the quality of their shots was the same (on average, the expected goal of their shot was 18 percent and 17 percent) Dessers was getting so many more chances last season. With over double the xG, shots and touches in the opposition box.
Logic tells you that a better functioning team can look forward more often and spend a greater amount of time in the final third, generating crossing opportunities and relying less on a No.9 to build play. This should help Miovski score more ‘poacher’s goals’ - like we say against Hibs and even the disallowed goal by VAR against Kilmarnock recently. However, it is fair to suggest that the summer arrival is not at his best when helping to unpick a defence; much like Dessers, he is not a striker for all occasions.
Why Chermiti has been favoured and Miovski’s weaknesses
It can’t be ignored that so far, Miovski has struggled against low blocks.
Rohl has started each of his strikers on three occasions, but Miovski has twice been taken off at half-time for Chermiti in games where Rangers have been dominating the ball - at home against Kilmarnock and away against Dundee .
Like Dessers, Miovski struggles to unpick a static defensive block, while Chermiti, for the faults he’s shown so far, is more of an occupier of a defence, given his size, able to act as a launchpad for direct passes forward.
In scenarios like the one below, during the first half of a 3-1 win against Kilmarnock, Miovski can become too predictable. Unable to slalom with his back to goal and turn defenders, he can lack poise with his back to goal and cause turnovers.
There is an argument that Dessers is a better player than Miovski. He’s scored more in the Scottish Premiership, excluding penalties. Equally, there is an argument that until Miovski gets the type of service enjoyed by the Nigerian, we’ll never know.
Although so many top teams use a No.9 who doesn’t always materially help to break down a low block in open play - think of Erling Haaland at Man City as the elite example - when chances do come along, said striker must be ruthless to earn his place and the team must be good enough to generate those opportunities without a striker building play.
To this point, neither of those dynamics has worked well enough. One will need to change for Miovski's goals to rise.
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