Danny Rohl didn’t try to dress up Rangers’ 2–1 win over Livingston last Saturday, branding it a “dirty win”.
However, the head coach added that he would've taken four league wins from four when joining a month ago, and that nothing counts more than winning in a situation like Rangers’, who had won just once in seven league outings before his arrival.
Rohl has proven to be pragmatic and speaks in a language that supporters appreciate. He doesn’t describe a different game from the one they watched, unlike his predecessor.
However, while results have improved, performances must improve too, or that winning run will quickly come to an end. Falkirk visit Ibrox tomorrow before a tough double-header on the road; Dundee United at Tannadice and Kilmarnock at Rugby Park.
And this, before we get into some concerning underlying numbers, is the Germans' issue. He inherits a team shot of confidence, with a largely accepted drop in quality from last season across the board and without real time on the training pitch to implement ideas.
Rohl has inherited no floor to build from; there is very little to fall back on, whether that is a collective shape or a raft of individuals to dig his team out of a hole.
Steven Gerrard's Rangers team struggled to create in difficult periods of his reign, but could always rely on their structure out of possession. It was a base to build on.
Giovanni van Bronckhorst and Michael Beale's sides had greater individual quality, while Philippe Clement, until the end, could point to Europe as evidence that, despite faltering domestically, his team could perform in certain circumstances, playing effectively into space.
Last season, even when Rangers struggled, they could count on Hamza Igamane and Vaclav Cerny's quality, alongside Cyriel Dessers' flow of goals. This season, alongside a weakened defence, that game-breaking ability is absent.
Collectively, what Martin tried to implement in the summer - a high-risk strategy that was watered down after Club Brugge - has effectively been ripped up. Look at the vast difference in Rangers' approach on Thursday night vs Braga compared to their first European qualifier in the summer. It's worlds apart; there has been no base to build on.
So, although tomorrow's meeting against Falkirk presents Rohl and his side with a chance to win five league games in a row, that run won't continue unless the gap between conceding and creating chances grows. Otherwise, luck, which has been on Rangers' side according to the data, will catch up.
Davie Martindale’s team had nine shots last weekend, the same number as the hosts, and ought to have been awarded a penalty when a Yengi effort struck the arm of Manny Fernandez. Their chance creation was only marginally lower than Rangers’ (1.36 to 1.47 xG).
The game’s race chart below tells a helpful visual story. Rohl’s side only moved ahead on the underlying numbers when Mo Diomande finished into an empty net after a well-timed run in behind. Until that moment, following Fernandez’s opener, it was Livingston who had the better of the match. The sharp blue line just before the winning goal, representing Yengi’s one-on-one effort that was saved, could have completely changed the outcome.
In the chart below, each indent represents a chance; the higher the line, the better the quality of opportunity.
StatsBomb’s data shows that Rangers had only a 37 per cent chance of winning the match if it were simulated 100 times, based on the quality of chances both sides created. While a 3–0 win over Dundee was more convincing (1.16 xG to 0.46), previous victories weren't.
Against Kilmarnock, Stuart Kettlewell’s side actually shaded the quality of chances created. Although Jack Butland's error had a lot to do with that, the home side again fashioned very little in front of goal.
What about Hibs? Although the big chance Thibault Klidje missed after half-time at Easter Road, if combined with the penalty Butland saved, the home side had an 86 per cent chance of winning the game when simulated 100 times.
Again, there is some context here, given the early goal that Rohl's side were protecting.
However, what's clear is this: Rangers don't attack well enough for how they currently defend, nor defend well enough given how they attack.
So what does this all mean? Is Rohl surviving purely on luck? Of course not. It’s not that simple. You could argue that, on the contrary, the recent hire has found a way to “just win” by making clever half-time substitutions, maximising set pieces, and remaining tactically flexible.
Remember, Rangers had won just one of seven league matches before his arrival, and there has been very little time to work on the training pitch. The sporting director and CEO have been sacked. It's hardly proven to be an optimal environment to build momentum.
Indeed, last weekend was the third time Rohl’s side had taken the lead from a set piece in the league, with new set-piece coach Scott Fry in place for the first time and Rangers creating space for a powerful Fernandez header. Rohl has also made at least one substitution in every league match he has managed, a habit his former assistant Chris Powell told the Rangers Review reflects his proactive approach.
Then there is the elephant in the room, the recruitment this summer. A £20 million net spend is nowhere near delivering the desired impact on the pitch. Alongside injuries, how many players did Rohl inherit whom he can rely upon to give a seven out of 10 consistently?
The lack of a new spine signed over the summer, three or four quality over quantity players to truly build around, only hurts Rangers more by the week. The issues seen many times before appear to have been exacerbated, not solved, by the summer’s business.
That shows up in the club's chance creation numbers, which, to put it mildly, don't offer much confidence.
It would be negligent not to consider what the underlying numbers suggest is around the corner unless performances improve, whether through gaining more control, increasing fluidity in attack to create more from open play, or ideally both.
Falkirk, Motherwell, Hibs, Hearts, and Celtic are all creating a higher xG per 90 minutes than Rangers’ lowly 1.07. For context, last season their xG per 90 was 1.73, already a drop from previous years.
And while only Hearts and Celtic have conceded a higher xG than Rangers, the Ibrox side are still allowing an average of 0.94 per 90, significantly higher than Celtic’s 0.64.
When you combine those two numbers, although Celtic are clearly weaker than usual and Hearts are navigating new territory at the top of the division, Rangers’ xG difference — the variation between what a side creates and concedes — stands at just 0.12. That places them fourth in the league, which is exactly where they currently sit. There is basically no variance between the average quality of chances they're creating minus those they're conceding.
In 2024/25, their xG difference was 0.86, in 2023/24 it was 1.23, and the year before it was 1.27.
Furthermore, if we look at open-play xG, excluding set-pieces that have accounted for six league goals, Rangers rank seventh out of 12 in the league in terms of chance creation. 0.78 is around half of last season's 1.43 chance creation in open play.
Taking the data dive a step further, we can see that, basically, no one is creating opportunities
xG assisted in measuring the chances a teammate creates for another that ends in a shot. Last season, in a full season, it should be noted, eight players averaged a chance creation above 0.10.
This season, only three Rangers players are generating that relatively low standard per 90.
This only includes those who have amassed more than 600 minutes (although those who've played less than that after months of football haven't provided the answers so far either). Although it looks as though Miovski is his team's most dangerous creator, he, like Derek Cornelius, created an open-goal chance for Diomande's winner against Livi, or Miovski's goal against Falkirk in Cornelius' case, which skews the overall per 90 average.
Look at James Tavernier's lowly creativity in open play, 0.04 per 90 is less than a quarter of his total in the 2021/22 season (0.19). Djeidi Gassama accesses good positions but lacks a final ball; Thelo Aasgaard simply hasn't done it so far.
Rangers' underlying numbers confirm with the eye sees - this is the weakest domestic performance since before Gerrard's tenure, with no base to build from. There are no overperforming players to raise the levels collectively, no solid defence to build on, and no creative forces generating chances. No one would dispute that Rohl is up against it and has done well to navigate domestic challenges so far.
He will know that to keep winning, only so many performances like last weekend can be allowed.
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