Rangers have not fashioned sufficient chances to be accused of profligacy in a single game this season, but last night at Tannadice that changed.
The performance, while not faultless and frenzied in moments, generated more than enough opportunities to win. It was an anomaly. The issue was simple: no one was able to take them.
The Ibrox side’s average open-play xG heading into the match was 0.85, but last night it was 2.7, far higher than the hosts’ 0.89. Add in set-pieces and Rangers’ xG rose to 3.03, and with the late penalty included, it reached 3.81.
Danny Rohl was right to point out that, based on recent performances, his side created roughly “four games’ chances” in one 90-minute match. He also correctly identified that Rangers are incapable of consistently bringing together all the necessary elements to win games. There is no floor or base to build from. When one issue is resolved, another emerges.
“At the weekend, we didn’t create a lot of chances, but tonight we had chances for maybe four games,” he reasoned post-match. “But this is the other part, on Sunday, we got a clean sheet. Tonight we didn’t. If we could bring the two together, the clean sheet along with the style we played with tonight, we’ll get a lot of points in the future.”
His issue, and that of chairman Andrew Cavenagh, who is over from the US again this week and watched from the stands, is that Rangers need points now. The 2-2 draw in Tayside keeps Rangers in fourth place and nine points off the top. At this rate, they are fighting for third rather than the title.
Nasser Djiga and Manny Fernandez both had shaky moments, and as a team Rangers’ lack of control can prove alarming. However, if any of their three strikers had taken the chances presented to them, we likely wouldn’t be discussing the defence this morning.
The narrative surrounding Rohl as he travelled back down the A9 ought to have been that Rangers had finally found a way to create chances. Instead, the match offered further proof that the club have downgraded at No. 9. By December, with 18 full 90 minutes between them, Danilo, Youssef Chermiti and Bojan Miovski have just four league goals combined. Add in Djeidi Gassama and it's five goals between the four in 31.2 full 90 minutes.
There is some way to go to make up the 41 league goals managed by Hamza Igamane, Vaclav Cerny and Cyriel Dessers last season.
According to StatsBomb’s race chart, based on the quality of chances created, Rangers would win last night's game 91 per cent of the time.
Jack Butland, one of Rangers’ better performers this season, was partially at fault for the first goal, going down too early as Zak Sapsford chipped the ball over him.
Yet this side’s issue under Rohl has not generally been in defence domestically. Butland earned three points by saving a late penalty against Hibs last month and bailed out his team with a one-on-one stop when a home tie with Livingston was delicately poised at 1-1.
An underperforming attack, unable to take pressure off Rangers’ defence all season, failed once more to capitalise when chances arrived. This was their turn to carry the load.
So far, the likes of Miovski and Chermiti could point to limited shooting opportunities to justify their collective two Scottish Premiership goals by December, but not last night.
Chermiti’s failure even to direct a late header towards goal (0.2 xG) attracted understandable ire from the away support, while Miovski’s only effort early in the match (0.34 xG) was tame.
Therein lies the two-fold issue: neither of these No. 9s generates many shooting opportunities for themselves, and when they do arrive, they have not been clinical enough.
Service cannot always be blamed. The best strikers are alive to half-chances, able to fashion moments through clever runs or individual quality, and take the opportunities that come their way.
Sporting director Kevin Thelwell, sacked last week, has spent well over £20million on Chermiti across two clubs. If any of his many ill-judged decisions defined his reign, it was the belief that the young Portuguese forward should be the second-most expensive signing in the club’s history.
Although only 21, when you invest that level of money in a league of this standing, the player must be transformative. More talented youngsters than Chermiti - Amad Diallo, Fabio Silva, and to a degree Malik Tillman - have struggled under Glasgow’s unforgiving glare. Chermiti is a young man under pressure, but giving it back to supporters after scoring against Kilmarnock is not a great look when that is his only goal for the club by December. Many, aside from those who made this decision, could see this transfer was unlikely to play out as hoped.
Chermiti’s issue is not simply that he is not scoring; it is that he does not look like scoring.
Across 8.1 90-minute in the league and Europa League combined, he has managed just 1.62 xG. In short, based on the chances he is getting, he should be scoring just shy of two goals for every eight full 90s.
In the league alone, Chermiti has played only slightly more than three full 90s, yet he has managed just four shots in the box.
Miovski was viewed as an oven-ready domestic forward. However, the North Macedonian underperformed his xG in two seasons at Aberdeen, while 12 of his 44 goals at Pittodrie were penalties.
Rohl had the 26-year-old more involved last night, dropping in to drag United defenders across the pitch, but he is in this team to finish chances like the one presented on 16 minutes. Across 8.9 90s, although his shot map is healthier, he should have more than one league goal.
Danilo, meanwhile, does not provide the consistency required, never quite looking like himself after injury. Unfortunate with an acrobatic effort that hit the bar, his shooting in other moments seems to consistently lack power and incision.
It says a lot that Nedim Bajrami, left out of the European squad, was man of the match, playing with a certain swagger, confidently scoring a late penalty and creating the chance for Chermiti that should have resulted in an equaliser. He hadn’t even started a league game this season until the weekend and yet he appears Rangers' most confident attacker.
Meanwhile, Gassama, clearly talented and so quick out of the blocks, has also been relied upon too heavily. Last night, he had the best chances on the pitch (five shots worth 1.02xG) but couldn’t find the net.
The Frenchman looks so limited when starting on the right compared to the left. In the last three matches, he has missed three big chances after cutting back from that side. Missing the target against Livi, hitting Scott Bain against Falkirk, and failing to hit the net last night.
That is a pattern, and it’s hard to believe the same wastefulness would have occurred had those chances originated on the left.
It is a recruitment failing that Gassama has been forced to play on the right instead of his natural left side. It was also a mistake to believe a young player could mirror Cerny’s impact last season. Gassama may eventually become a better player than the Czech international, but at the moment, he is not.
Read more:
- Danny Rohl says Rangers created the chances of 4 games, Chermiti miss and fan anger
- Major Nico Raskin update with midfielder NOT out of contract in 2027
And that, in essence, sums up where Rangers are and why Thelwell is no longer at the club. Despite spending well north of £30 million in the summer, the attacking options are weaker than those who left or were sold, including Igamane, Dessers and Cerny.
Time to develop at a club like this is only earned by achieving results, and points only arrive when you have three, four or five players you can absolutely rely on to perform to a certain standard. All season, Rangers have been missing such figures in their final third.
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