There has been a general belief inside Ibrox, dating back to late last year, that Rangers would win the league title this season from a standing start. The issue has been clawing back a deficit to Hearts and Celtic since October.
The early phases of Danny Rohl’s premiership were spent focusing on clean sheets and defensive stability. Over the last month or two, since the close of the January window, the German has started to implement more of his own ideas in possession.
The Ibrox side conceded just eight goals in Rohl’s first 16 league games before matching that total in the subsequent five matches. However, following solid defensive performances since Nasser Djiga was reinstated next to Manny Fernandez, Rangers have conceded only one goal in their last three games.
At the other end of the pitch, goals per game have jumped to 2.71 since the January transfer window closed, up from 1.8 previously.
There is a feeling that although issues remain – namely a lack of obvious goalscorers, with no player yet in double figures, and open-play chance creation still only equating to roughly one goal per game – Rohl’s side may peak at the right time and finish the season as the most complete of three incomplete teams battling for the Scottish Premiership title.
How accurate is that feeling? Using a 10-game rolling xG difference average appears to show that it is Rangers who are currently, marginally, in the best moment when compared to Hearts and Celtic.
A helpful barometer for measuring performance is xG difference. xG for a team sums the quality of all the chances they create, estimating how many goals they should score over a game or season. xG difference (xGD) is that team’s xG minus the xG they concede; the wider the margin, the better their chance of winning games, especially over a period of time.
How do all three teams compare? Let’s start with Hearts, who remain top of the Scottish Premiership and face Livingston and Motherwell before the split.
The Gorgie side have lost three of their last eight matches and won four of five games in that period by a one-goal margin. If they are to win an unprecedented title, it will be owed to staying power and the lead established early in the campaign rather than unstoppable momentum come the spring.
In the trendlines that follow, the farther apart the two lines are, the better, because they plot a rolling 10-game average of the value of chances created (green) and chances conceded (purple).
The closer the two lines, the smaller your margin for error and the less likely you are to sustain long winning streaks. Hearts’ current xG difference based on their last 10 games is 0.36 .
Hearts’ chance creation (green) has improved marginally since the start of the season. Across the whole campaign, however, their open-play xG is only the fifth-best in the division – 0.98 per 90, slightly below city rivals Hibs.
As the chart above shows, Hearts have started to concede more chances since Christmas without creating enough to give themselves real breathing space. Their current 0.36xG difference helps explain that run over the past two months; they have won by a two-goal margin only twice since early December.
Derek McInnes’ team have reached the summit of the league by capitalising on Old Firm chaos, boasting some of the competition’s most impressive attacking individuals, maximising set-pieces and showing the resolve and grit that has underpinned a series of 1–0 wins. It should also be noted that Hearts have withstood an injury crisis in recent weeks and are now buoyed by the returns of Lawrence Shankland, Cammy Devlin and Beni Baningime.
The data suggests results are likely to regress over the next seven games if performances remain at the same level, and that has been the case since Christmas. Results have broadly matched the dip shown in the chart above since December 27, when the two lines start to move towards each other.
Unbeaten at home throughout the campaign, and with several key players back, the question is whether Hearts have already survived their tricky patch or whether it is still to come. If their xG difference between chances created and conceded remains at 0.36, Hearts will be defying logic in more ways than one to win the title.
Celtic suffered a damaging defeat away at Dundee United just before the international break. Having seemingly come through the toughest period of their run-in – two trips to Ibrox, a meeting with Motherwell and a visit to Pittodrie, from which they dropped only two points and secured Scottish Cup progression – performances eventually caught up with Martin O’Neill’s side at Tannadice.
Celtic had been fortunate to beat Kilmarnock in February and Falkirk in January, but they did seem to be playing their way into form after defeating Motherwell at Parkhead earlier in the month.
However, as the xG trendline below shows, their underlying numbers have not been positive since O’Neill’s return. Celtic’s current xG difference is 0.59 based on the average of their last 10 games.
O’Neill’s side are still creating the best chances from open play over the course of the season, with their 1.48 xG in open play higher than Rangers’ 1.06. Interestingly, Celtic have underperformed their xG, scoring 51 goals from 56 expected goals across the campaign. Rangers have also scored 51, from an xG of 46.
That points to an underperforming Celtic attack, but it could also indicate that O’Neill’s side are due a little luck in front of goal that Rohl’s side have already enjoyed. Or, it could showcase poor recruitment on one side of the side compared to the other.
Celtic’s problem is that their squad is the weakest it has been in some time. They still lack a reliable striking option, Callum McGregor has had injury issues, Julian Araujo appeared to have solved their right‑back problem but is now out for the season, and options on the wing are down on previous iterations of this team. While O’Neill’s side are still creating the best chances in the division, they are not operating at the level of Brendan Rodgers’ Celtic. Celtic also struggle to cope with the physicality of certain matches, and they have scored only six set‑play goals, compared to 14 for Rangers and 15 for Hearts.
Five points behind McInnes’ men, they cannot yet be counted out. The experience of winning is an intangible we can neither properly measure nor entirely discount, and their meetings with Hearts and Rangers after the break both come at Parkhead. With matches away at Dundee and at home to St Mirren, anything other than maximum points could effectively rule them out of the race.
Rangers do not have the injury issues or ageing core that Celtic are dealing with. Their January window appears to have been more successful and the profile of their options is healthier than that of their city rivals. Encouragingly for Rohl, the all‑important lines below have been moving in opposite directions since his arrival.
While not completely linear, Rangers’ chance creation is well up on what the German inherited and, despite that concerning defensive run after the January window when they conceded eight goals in five games, Djiga’s partnership with Fernandez now looks to be stabilising things.
Rangers’ current xG difference of 0.79 – taken from an average of the past 10 games – is better than both Hearts (0.36) and Celtic (0.59). The graph perhaps looks more dramatic because of just how poor they were at the start of the season.
Plenty of questions remain. Do Rangers finally have a balance between full throttle and control – the kind that deserted them in a 2–2 league draw with Celtic? Their 58 per cent average possession is the lowest at Ibrox since StatsBomb began recording Scottish Premiership data in 2018, and there are still doubts about this side’s proactiveness on the ball.
Score a goal, from a set‑piece or otherwise, to open the game up and they are fine; but when asked to dictate the tempo in possession, old issues can still resurface.
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On the other hand, Rangers are the form team since Rohl arrived, have won big games (including at Parkhead) and arguably boast the deepest squad. They have added tactical layers in recent weeks and, while Rohl has no clear outstanding attacker – Mikey Moore aside – his ability to chop and change should ensure he is not left short of options. A dry spell without set‑piece goals appears to be over and, since Djiga replaced Souttar in defence, the back line has looked secure again.
There are a lot of questions, but no team has all the answers. The question over the next seven games is who can provide the most.
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