Russell Martin and Rangers in worrying ‘post-results reality’

While there hasn’t been much in the way of domestic achievement to showcase since 2021, there has always been Europe, and plenty of it. Leipzig. Dortmund. A Champions League group stage return. One thing Rangers, in all their inconsistency, have consistently got right ever since Steven Gerrard began penning a new chapter in the club’s history is Thursday nights. Those have been ringfenced from the nonsense.

So for those new arrivals who’d heard stories about the Ibrox atmosphere and expected it to roar, the Genk match on Thursday must’ve felt oddly muted. With 12,000 empty seats and apathy in the air, the decibel levels only really spiked after Jack Butland’s excellent penalty save that followed Mo Diomande’s red card. That moment briefly stirred a siege mentality from a crowd otherwise too disillusioned to show it. For mainstays like James Tavernier, the evening must’ve felt like he’d got the wrong place and the wrong time. This was not a typical Rangers Thursday.

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• Aasgaard insists Rangers must 'keep to our principles' and not 'feel the pressure'
• Russell Martin details conversations with Rangers hierarchy after Genk defeat

And who could blame the home support? Four wins in 14 matches, after a summer net spend of £20 million. The club seems to be operating in a kind of post-results reality, where every poor showing can be framed as part of a grander project.

Privately, the message all summer had been that Russell Martin will be given what every Rangers manager craves: time. The new American ownership was said to bring a safe emotional distance and a willingness to make rational, long-term decisions. That included hiring a manager who, notably, did not have broad support among the fanbase. 

But echoes of last season are already beginning to ring out, a campaign where Philippe Clement went virtually unchallenged due to an absence of authority ahead him in the food chain, with no CEO, no sporting director, and no chairman for a time. This season, there are plenty of suits and titles in place, yet to this point, the club has paid the price so far for going all-in and going all-in so early. Committing to an idea and project that they continue to back despite a start even the most doubtful voices could’ve foreseen.

Miguel Delaney recently wrote of Manchester United’s pursuit of Ruben Amorim:

“Best practice in the modern game is for a football hierarchy to first decide what their ideology is going to be, with that ideally informed by the history and culture of the club. Every single decision should flow from that, from recruitment to coaches. It automatically means clubs don’t find themselves in this situation, where so much seems to be weighted on one man... It would have been much better if Amorim came into a squad that at least had previously tactically adaptable players signed to a broader ideal…”

There’s a parallel here. As previously noted, a 'culture shock' has accompanied Martin’s style of play at Ibrox perhaps due to a lack of due diligence on how his methods would translate and how the home crowd would respond. Thursday nights under previous managers thrived on pace and intensity. Against Genk, even during brighter spells, Rangers’ game lacked the urgency that’s required to ignite this support. Meanwhile, despite a major squad overhaul, Martin has admitted he’s had to “simplify” tactics, a likely driver of the recent system shift.

Andrew Cavenagh has backed Russell Martin in recent weeks(Image: PA)

There’s a theory that Rangers have attempted too much, too soon. Failing to properly consider the club’s history in forming their playing ideology. Attaching too much weight to one man and rather than gradually overhauling a playing style and squad, attempting to overhaul everything in one summer.

Martin has adapted. Following the Club Brugge defeat, Rangers have moved away from the 4-3-3 setup with advanced full-backs and a single No.6, shifting to a double-pivot in midfield. This has brought a touch more solidity out of possession but has also, as seen first in the following Old Firm defeat, dulled the fluid attacking play glimpsed in the win over Viktoria Plzen, a performance now looking more like an outlier than a sign of things to come. That move from a dogmatic approach seems to have come too late, the damage has been done since a 6-0 loss in Belgium.

Will chairman Andrew Cavenagh, having spent time on the ground this week and attended training, return home to the US with a changed perspective? Ultimately, this is his first foray into football, and any decision about Martin’s future should be guided primarily by the club’s football leaders. Both Patrick Stewart and Kevin Thelwell have backed Martin; he is their man, chosen after a lengthy recruitment process.

The problem, however, is that there’s little underlying data to suggest gold at the end of the rainbow. Thursday night’s match offered a perfect example. Diomande’s red card on the stroke of half-time clearly altered the game, Genk came out aggressive and scored early in the second half. But even before that, the Belgians looked more likely to score. And they hardly arrived at Ibrox in form, languishing near the bottom of their league after eight games. The visitors struck the post, fluffed several chances, and could have left Glasgow with a more flattering scoreline.

The race chart for the defeat to Genk(Image: StatsBomb)

The Rangers Review recently noted after the 2–0 loss to Hearts that the underlying metrics - the sort that can instil faith when results are lacking - paint a bleak picture. Rangers head to Livingston with an xG difference of just 0.02. They are creating and conceding at virtually the same rate. Their xG per 90 is 0.92, the third-lowest total in the league, and nearly half of last season’s 1.73, which itself marked a downturn from prior years. Rangers recorded just 77 points last season, their lowest tally since 2017. Current projections based on points-per-game don’t bear putting down in writing.

And that’s the point: if you're not winning while trying to build something in Glasgow, you’d better have tangible proof that the foundation is sound. Because if the results don’t turn, the time spent waiting becomes wasted, especially in terms of what is perceived amongst fans. 

Though the 1–0 defeat to Genk was narrow on paper, a draw would’ve flattered Rangers. Once again, they looked far too open and vulnerable off the ball. The decisive goal came, predictably, during a phase where Rangers were still chasing the game after the break. Their defensive inefficiencies would look better if the attack was clicking and creating, but it is not.

Martin has previously kept a framed quote from Pep Guardiola in his office, which explains that “trust in the game model” must be maintained even “when it is questioned the most”. Sticking to the idea is imperative because that is why you were appointed. As Amorim has repeated “I don’t have another idea”. 

But even Pep is evolving in football’s new era. Against Arsenal last weekend, the most possession-obsessive manager of all time finished the match with less possession than at any point in his coaching career. With five defenders camped at the base of a deep, solid structure, trying to survive at all costs. Guardiola knows, as he seeks to rejuvenate City again, that results matter more than ever before.