Rangers transfer scouting: The Brazilian midfielder capable of providing goalscoring solution

Lincoln has all the hallmarks of Brazilian icons of years gone past, an abundance of flair, technique, close control to envy, and, most importantly, a genuine smile and a sense of enjoyment when the ball is at his feet.

What separates him from many others is his career path up to now. Lincoln spent his formative years duelling with some of Brazil's top prospects at Gremio before making the temporary switch from Porto Alegre to Rize in Turkey, diametric opposites. Still a teenager, Lincoln impressed Erdogan's hometown but kept his stint short before returning to Brazil. What followed was a loan and some extended time in Gremio's first-team setup.

However, come 2019, Lincoln began his European journey in its most convenient nation, Portugal, like many other Brazilians. Though not on the mainland, Lincoln has impressed whilst turning out for the Azorean side, Santa Clara. He's now three seasons deep into this Portuguese project, and it seems that the summer of 2022 could be a natural ending to that, or at least his time in the Azores.

Interest from the mainland emanating from Porto has been rumoured as well as murmurs from Istanbul as Jorge Jesus begins assembling his Fenerbahce side in his image, both may prove hard to beat. However, a rumoured asking price of £4.3m makes this a piece of hypothetical business that Rangers can't afford to not explore.

Let's look at why as we delve into his style, substance and projected fit at Ibrox.

Profile

Lincoln is primarily a No.10, as this is where his key strengths are best suited and most effective; however, over the past few seasons, he has become increasingly influential further back as a No.8. This is in large part due to physical and footballing maturation, which has seen him become a more valuable asset out of possession. He stands at 178cm and has a relatively slender frame, though much like Joe Aribo, he has a strong upper body as well as a stable base, allowing him to be a somewhat secure option when static in possession.

His raw pace is above average but is likely a limiting factor higher up the food chain and perhaps acted as motivation as to why he plays centrally rather than on either wing. His physical profile should not limit him in Scotland as he’s strong and fast enough that he will be able to showcase his ability and skill on the ball. This, coupled with a fairly spotless injury history, should limit any struggles when met with the nature of Scottish football. His heatmap below shows that he has a natural tendency to drift leftwards. It's important to add that despite the left being his penchant, he drifts everywhere and at all junctures in possession.

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Lincoln is the type who wants the ball at his feet regardless of where on the pitch. He has often been seen marshalling players and appears a confident and assertive communicator. As mentioned earlier, he spent two years in Eastern Turkey as a teenager, so concerns over assimilation or mentality are limited.

Below is Lincoln’s data profile ran against his fellow Liga Portugal attacking midfielders and wingers who satisfy the minutes threshold. Important to note, and this should be in the back of your head for the entirety of this piece; Lincoln plays in a far better league, and for a far less dominant side, so all skills and output should see minimal to substantial inflation when playing for Rangers.

If we look at his composite ratings at the bottom, it is outstandingly well-rounded given the context. The three that stand out positively from the bench are ball progression, finishing and crossing, whilst the two that fall below average are pass security and attacking threat. To summarise, he profiles as a well-rounded No.10 who can contribute at all junctures or as an attacking No.8, whose ability in and around the penalty box outweighs his slightly undercooked contribution in and around his own box.

Function In Build-Up

Even whilst playing as a No.10, Lincoln has a habit of coming short to catalyse build-up, he wants his fingerprints on everything good that Santa Clara do in possession. As a No.8 it is more of an expectation and one that he satisfies.

Lincoln is fairly one-footed when it comes to deep progression and long passes, his ability to use both sides of his left-foot counter-acts this when playing short and fine passes, but no one can trivella the ball across the pitch for 50+ yards. As such, his passing routes are effectively pre-established, which you can see by the high volume of specific passes indicated by the larger bars in the graphic below. When coming deep it is almost always a diagonal to the right-wing if on the left side or deep to the left-wing if in possession on the right, however, when played further forward and centrally his pass map becomes evenly distributed across 360 degrees.

Below are his progressive passes from the last season mapped. When concerned with build-up, the cluster of passes just before and after the halfway line is important. This cluster is healthy, which is encouraging, though healthiest on that left-wing, which appears to be his overall favourite spot.

An example of this exact pass can be seen below. Here we see Lincoln come wide to receive from the right-back. He gains possession with his back to goal, waits and spins quickly and catches the opposition right-back ball-watching. He sends in an appropriately weighted and pitched through ball, which finds his teammate open and ready to attack from wide.

In a Rangers context, these passes will prove invaluable when trying to force defensive rotations and take advantage of cross-field overloads. At Santa Clara, this skill proved invaluable as one of the first few actions in counter-attacks. Below we can see all of his counter-attacking actions plotted, though the black lines which indicate passes are what we are concerned with.

For example, we can see a high number of passes in several different areas of the pitch, with differing lengths, suggesting he can provide a variety of ways to kick-start counters. His ability to progress with the ball at his feet will be touched upon later, though this ability forces defenders to come tight, which only perpetuates the residual space for his teammates to run into.

A great example of this is seen below. Despite the presence of two central runners, Lincoln has attracted the attention of the outside centre-back and dragged him backwards. As such, the angle permits Lincoln to find his teammate, who is central, albeit it's a lot easier said than done. With the perfect amount of curl and pace, Lincoln fires the ball inwards, finding his teammate, which leads to a one-v-one chance.

Threading The Needle and Breaking Down Blocks

All of the skills mentioned when discussing his role in build-up are transferable and even heightened when closer to the goal. If asked to pick a single facet in which he excels the most, Lincoln’s chance creation trumps all else. His creativity rating ranked highest compared to all others when compared to his peers, falling in the 73rd percentile which is not too shabby.

Below we can see Lincoln’s assist and shot assists. One of the first things to stand out is the abundance of deliveries from wide. Despite playing centrally, Lincoln’s tendency to drift mixed with his fantastic crossing ability is a good combination. One is that beneficial for many of his teammates. Another cluster of passes is seen just in front of the halfway line, in the form of deep searching passes towards the box.

A great example can be seen below. Lincoln picks up the ball at the halfway line and drifts to the left. He then identifies his forward on the right side, who has no defender behind him, limiting the pressure on both parties. Lincoln plays it over the goal-side defender, and his forward collects it just outside the box and has a golden scoring chance.

A carbon-copy of the previous example is seen below; however, Lincoln plays the ball with the outside of his foot this time. This can sometimes offer a consistent substitute for a solid right foot, though it's not optimal in all situations.

An even better example of Lincoln’s trivella passing style can be seen below. Here he manages to slip the ball past the best part of three defenders and through the narrowest of channels, to find an on-running teammate who is now presented with a one-v-one opportunity.

The previous examples have dealt with Lincoln’s ability to access the box from deeper positions. Let us shift our attention to his efficacy when in and around the penalty box as space becomes a premium and the bodies multiply. 

Below we can see all of his penalty-area deliveries plotted, all originating in the final third. An obvious preference for the left side emerges, which makes sense given his stronger left foot and the ease of crossing from the left on his left.

He has a consistently excellent delivery, whether the target is a teammate or an open space for one to run towards. Below we can see the latter; here, Lincoln swings the ball in early, into a chasm of space just in front of the near-post. A teammate in acres of space shifts forward and taps the ball into the back of the net.

A second example is below; we see Lincoln play in his teammate at the back post. Both are on the same wave level so he can play it in front of him, and the forward follows the well-pitched delivery before nodding it into the back of the net.

Lincoln at Ibrox would prove more consistent and varied chance creation than anyone else currently at the club. His nice mesh of skills would see him prove valuable at all junctures and against all opponents, as he has something in his bag for all sorts of shapes, systems, and opponents.

Taking on and Dribbling

Lincoln lacks the blazing speed that makes the likes of Ryan Kent and Fashion Sakala dangerous on the ball. He’s undoubtedly faster than Ianis Hagi but largely falls under the same category of skilled technical dribblers who would be genuinely unstoppable if a yard or two quicker.

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He is fantastic at manufacturing space and beating players but can struggle to leave defenders in the dust. He is far more effective in tighter spaces where speed is less critical but is still a positive ball carrier over long distances. This is seen below, where all his successful dribbles from this season are plotted. A healthy amount falls in his own half, suggesting he takes on the role much like when passing, off progression from deep.

What’s very impressive is the number of dribbles that are shot or goal-ending, marked by either black or blue above. Dribbling for dribbling’s sake is fun on the eye and an excellent way to manufacture space. Still, Lincoln’s tangible end product that follows a dribble is pivotal to any prospective club.

Late Runs and Dead Ball Supremacy

One thing Rangers serially lacked last season was goals from midfield, especially from the No.10s.

Hagi, at his best, is a slightly inconsistent goal threat; the same goes with Aribo. The early signs from Alex Lowry are great, but expecting him to carry a significant goalscoring load in the immediate 18 months is a setup for failure.

Lincoln is not an out-and-out goalscorer but does have his strengths and would prove a consistent stream of goals. His three primary scoring methods are long-shots, free-kicks, and late third-man runs. You can see each of these in the shot map below, effectively populated exclusively by strikes from distance and tap-ins.

Despite being relatively well-stocked for both feet when it comes to free-kicks in large part due to Rangers' full-backs, Lincoln is simply better than both. He is a capable and dangerous option from close to far when aiming high or low. His direct free kick accuracy is similar to James Tavernier’s and better than Borna Barisic’s. However, he takes twice as many p90 as either and has scored more than both over the past two seasons. Below is an excellent example of a precise and guided low attempt. Despite the proximity to goal, he slips it past the wall and keeper into the bottom left corner.

An even more impressive effort is seen below; here, he finds the bottom corner from a serious distance, putting over the wall but landing it perfectly, so it bounces just before it goes in, making it near-on impossible for the keeper to contend with.

Even if Lincoln can replicate his free-kick exploits at Rangers, it's not the sort of thing you can bank on from game to game. The more reliable form of goals from Lincoln is through intelligent and aggressive third-man runs. Given Alfredo Morelos's link-up ability and the overloads that Rangers create pitch-wide, having an extra marauding option would prove effective, as it has when Scott Arfield has done so.

Below is an excellent example of Lincoln hedging his run before accelerating at the right time to go from the blindside to the goal side of the defender before tapping it in.

A similar example is seen below, though here we see Lincoln leverage his close control more so than the timing of runs. He picks up the ball on the edge of the box and slips past two defenders before making his way up to and past the penalty sport before slotting it into the bottom corner.

Radar Comparison vs Kent and Hagi

Fit and Feasibility

If needs must, Rangers could realistically go into the 22/23 season without bringing in a new No.10, relying on Lowry to scale his output when given greater minutes and Hagi to return to his 20/21 version.

However, given the fact that Lincoln can deputise as a No.8, a position of real need, and would provide the sort of quality that would allow Rangers to begin bridging the gap to the Champions League or replicate the European exploits last term.

Throw in the fact that the rumoured fee that Santa Clara want is seemingly only around £4.3m, it’s an incredibly attractive proposal. Realistically, Lincoln would only be a viable option should Rangers make a substantial sale like Calvin Bassey or need to replace someone like Joe Aribo. Should either happen this summer, one of the first points of call should be to knock on Santa Clara’s door and try and sell the Rangers project to Lincoln.