Giovanni van Bronckhorst’s reaction when asked if Antonio Colak and Alfredo Morelos could play together last month was telling.
“I never played with two strikers, maybe only when we need to force things,” he said in a diplomatic tone with the initial reaction having betrayed his true feelings. It appeared as though the thought had not even entered his head.
It’s clearly a cornerstone of the Dutchman’s philosophy to play with one, physical central striker. At Feyenoord, this was a constant feature as his team evolved in personnel during a four-year stint. And during the initial months of his tenure at Ibrox van Bronckhorst revitalised Morelos’ form by simplifying the forward’s game.
The Colombian is yet to share the pitch with Colak and has never looked comfortable with a strike partner in the past. That being said, after seven league games Rangers are lagging behind considerably on goal difference and chance creation numbers, even if just two points separate the Old Firm at the top. With a lack of goals from the wide areas proving a persisting issue and the return to a conservative midfield selection against Dundee United, could a front pairing of some description be an option in home games going forward?
All the data and graphs used are exclusively from Scottish Premiership matches.
What do the stats say?
First, let’s look at how the duo compare statistically by using StatsBomb data. The below radar uses Morelos’ data from last season, given he has hardly featured during this domestic campaign and Colak’s data from this season.
What is this telling you chronologically?
- The pair average a near-identical number of shots and touches in the opposition box. Colak’s shot touch percentage (the number of shots a player takes as a proportion of their touches of the ball) is notably higher and illustrates his more instinctive nature.
- The quality of chance both take is similar (xG/Shot) but Colak’s finishing ability is superior. His Post-Shot xG, which measures the likelihood of a goal after a shot has been taken, is almost double that of Morelos’. The Croatian’s Shot On Ball Value, the net value from all shots, is considerably higher and his goals per game ratio is almost double.
- Morelos’ xG assisted, the quality of chance created for teammates, is far superior. The 25-year-old fashions opportunities with greater regularity and in general, his team look more fluid outside of the box when he starts at No.9. Staying on this theme, the Colombian makes more than three times the average number of open play passes Colak does and has a higher xGBuildup rating, demonstrating greater involvement in box-to-box play.
Seven games is a relatively small sample size when attempting to contextualise Colak's game. Nonetheless, the data is conducive to general opinion. The summer signing is a lethal penalty box striker who does the majority of his good work within 18-yards of the goal. Morelos is a less frequent and clinical goalscorer but still counts on a far stronger all-round game that benefits the team.
How do they compare stylistically?
Morelos is comfortable dropping deep and boasts the technical skillset to receive the ball in pressurised areas. The superior number of passes he plays outlines a higher level of involvement outside the box.
This allows Rangers’ to play through the opposition and bypass the midfield…
…Or break through a settled block and not be restricted to playing around the defence, the type of which proved limiting at the weekend against Dundee United…
Colak’s link-up play with his teammates and overall chemistry have improved dramatically since a 2-1 win over Livingston on the opening day of the season. That said, he cannot hold play, occupy defenders or orchestrate moves to the same level of his teammate.
He’s far more likely to run in behind (white line) than receive to feet (red line) in these type of situations…
...And there isn’t the same guarantee play will stick when high-risk passes are played against settled defences…
In 102 minutes of league football this season, Morelos has received 38 successful passes. Note his proclivity to drop deep and receive the ball in the midfield zone.
In contrast, during 523 minutes of league football this season, Colak has received 89 successful passes with his activity coming far closer to goal.
The eye and data test confirms that Colak doesn’t offer as much outside the box. Whether it be occupying defenders, spinning to switch play or offering avenues through pressure. But what about inside the penalty area?
As alluded to above, Colak has averaged north of a goal per game so far in the Premiership. He is a poacher, who will likely score with relentless regularity against the lower-ranked sides in the league. The exact profile needed for domestic football and one that has been lacking at Ibrox in recent years.
His shot map shows six goals from just 3.04xG. The quality of the forward's finishing means he's overperformed his goal return by 50 percent in the league this season.
Morelos is a strong attacker of crosses and his goalscoring is harder to define due to his all-action proifle. What is certain is that after so many years in Scotland and an average of 13.6 league goals per season, he is unlikely to exploit domestic defences with the regularity of his teammate. In contrast to Colak's record during the current campaign, Morelos slightly underperformed his xG last season.
Could a front pairing work?
We can see that Morelos and Colak profile differently as forwards - so could a front pairing work?
Outside the box, they often occupy different positions. One likes to come short while the other appears more comfortable high up the pitch. One is more prolific in the penalty box while the other can occupy defenders, run channels and offer avenues through pressure more successfully.
When Rangers have all the ball at home and need a greater number of goal threats, the prospect of both players occupying the penalty box is more of a solution than a problem. Furthermore, it’s not as if there are a number of in-form players or a definitive, adaptable structure that restricts the prospect of trying something new.
Van Bronckhorst’s initial reaction to the prospect of a Morelos-Colak pairing is revealing, however. As the Rangers Review wrote last week, his footballing philosophy may not be restrictive in regard to style or system but it does feature guiding principles. One of which is playing with a single, focal point of a striker.
In addition, Morelos has never worked well with a partner. Kemar Roofe played as more of a No.10 than No.9 from the right of Steven Gerrard’s front three and when the ex-manager occasionally moved to a 4-3-1-2 the pair seemed to play in one another’s zones more than anything.
It’s also worth noting that Morelos was out of form when van Bronckhorst arrived last season. It was the Dutchman’s tutelage that helped him recover form and go on one of, if not the, finest spells of his Ibrox career. Would playing him alongside Colak reignite the issues experienced towards the end of Gerrard’s spell, or in contrast, benefit the team overall?
Stylistically, it's fair to suggest that the pair could play together in a certain type of Premiership fixture. The general structure used in possession this season, an asymmetrical 4-3-3 depicted below, sees James Tavernier provide width from the right and Ryan Kent the left.
It wouldn't be impossible to include Morelos in that general set-up in games where his side dominate the ball. Even if the preferential outcome would see two attacking No.8s, Malik Tillman and Tom Lawrence, alleviate Colak's goal burden.
Colak and Morelos are similar but different and likely capable of being complimentary. Realistically, it's hard to envision van Bronckhorst opting for the pair as a solution unless, as he states, his side "need to force things".
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