In attempting to explain a generationally-bad result against Queen’s Park last week Philippe Clement referenced luck.
“We had enough chances to win three games,” he said, outlining the most attempts on goal in a single game all season. The phrase often repeated throughout a variety of interviews was that this was a “freak result”.
By the same metrics, the Rangers manager ought to have considered his side extremely fortuitous yesterday in Edinburgh during a 3-1 win over Hearts.
Hearts’ open-play xG of 2.17 was only marginally lower than the 2.99 fashioned by the Ibrox side against Championship outfit Queen’s the week before.
To quote their manager Neil Critchley, “It's not often you play Rangers and you have more of the ball, more passes, better chances, clearer chances, more shots. And we've done all of that today, yet we've lost.”
StatsBomb’s trendline judges that based on probability, Rangers would win yesterday’s game only 16 percent of the time.
This was the third-highest single-game xG total Rangers have conceded since Steven Gerrard’s first match in the Scottish Premiership. The highest? 2.31 against Ross County under Clement’s watch last season. The second? 2.18 against during a 3-0 Old Firm defeat back in September. It means that in the last calendar year, Rangers have tested the limits of an unwanted record three times.
On that day in Dingwall, the Belgian manager could justifiably play the bad luck card. His side fashioned a higher xG, faced an in-form goalkeeper and would’ve won the game 61/100 based on chances created. The difference here? Against Hearts, Rangers managed just 1.06xG compared to 2.63, plus a penalty, against Ross County.
While Clement suggested in his post-match press conference “You cannot say this was not a good performance if you score three goals away at Hearts” he is contradicting the same argument from the week before.
If Rangers were unlucky against Queen’s, they were just as lucky here. Arguably more given the relative level of each opponent.
Two of the away side’s goals were own goals and Vaclav Cerny’s strike fell into his path thanks to a fortunate deflection. Cerny’s strike (0.35xG) was the highest-value opportunity created all day by Rangers. Aside from that chance, Clement’s men did not create any opportunity above the value of 0.10xG, shown by the cool blue colour below.
Meanwhile, Craig Gordon had an average game and Jack Butland a well-above-average 90 minutes. We can determine this using Goals Saved Above Average (GSAA) - “How many goals did the keeper save/concede versus expectation (Post-Shot xG faced)? This is representative of how many goals the goalkeeper's saves prevented within a season.”
Gordon’s 0.12 was relatively standard while Butland’s 1.35 was well above - in short, the Englishman’s goalkeeping was worth more than a goal on the day and ensured Hearts underperformance the chances they fashioned.
Of course, there are some things in football that stats don’t measure. Clement’s side started well, scored two goals that were narrowly offside and showed real determination at a tricky venue.
But the raw data argues that while they earned a result this time round, this level of performance on the road will lead to the type of record Rangers have recorded this season - five wins on the road by February. Indeed, Hearts fashioned a higher quality of chance than Aberdeen did in defeating Rangers 2-1 earlier this season and Celtic’s 2.18xG was a decimal point higher than Critchley’s side managed during the first Old Firm of the campaign.
Clement could point to a corner being turned in terms of results during the last two away games, but the data suggests luck has favoured his team. What about the recent win over Dundee United? The xG came in at 1.13 to 1.16.
Of course, during other points of the season luck has gone against Clement’s men. Rangers created a higher xG than Kilmarnock in a 1-0 defeat at Rugby Park and more than enough opportunities during a 1-1 draw with Dundee United at Ibrox.
But the numbers point to clear issues. Theie current xG Conceded per 90 of 0.81 is the highest since the 2018/19 season (0.84). Away from home? The 0.98 xG Condeded per 90 is the highest since the club’s return to the top flight - far higher than last season’s 0.68 and Celtic's current total of 0.6.
xG is not everything but offers a far stronger barometer of dominance than shots on target. A shot can be from anywhere, xG accounts for its location, angle and distance to goal. Rangers’ xG per shot of 0.7 was significantly lower than Hearts’ 0.11 on Snuday, for example. While the home side took more shots the quality of their efforts were also higher.
Too often, Clement has used results to mask poor performances and performances to mask poor results.
The first-half at Tynecastle was an encapsulation of all that is bad about Rangers domestically. Why do they concede so many chances on the road? Because they cannot control games with the ball. Hearts played like the big team with a far greater grasp of the requirements for winning football matches consistently; holding onto possession, stopping their opponents from breaking up the pitch, pressing them into long ball after long ball.
The distances in possession Rangers favour are too big, the lack of control worrying. While a style like this one can have a high ceiling and afford quick attacks, something that works well in Europe, the floor to fall back on is far too low. So much of management is giving players the optimum tools and environment to perform but how many of the current Rangers squad look as though they’re operating near a peak?
This is what Patrick Stewart must consider and divulge. Sacking managers is no silver bullet but after 18 months does the data and results - operating hand in hand - suggest that this template can win a Scottish Premiership? Rangers are conceding more chances in away games than during any point since 2018 and that ought to raise alarm bells.
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